Ten years later: Self‐sufficiency of welfare mothers before the Great Recession

Abstract

This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families program, that was mandated by the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), showing trends over time in wages for mothers who received welfare benefits in 1996, using the power of a longitudinal data set: a nationally representative sample of 1000 welfare mothers in the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), linked to their IRS wage records from 1996 to 2007. Only one in ten of the 1996 cohort of welfare mothers received wages that were at least 175% of the poverty line by 2007. By 2007, only one in six of those with more than a high school diploma achieved this level of economic self‐sufficiency. For all time periods, the federal Earned Income Tax Credit, had a positive impact for only the lowest wage earners, that is, with earnings below half the poverty line. Our results provide a commentary on the validity of neoliberal assumptions underlying the long‐term implementation of the PRWORA. Analyses of future SIPP panels will determine whether these trends continued.