Temporal Variability of Climatic Parameters of Yamuna River Basin: Spatial Analysis of Persistence, Trend and Periodicity

Abstract

Abstract:Identification of the precise nature and attributes of the time series of climatological data is very important and is usually the first step for water resources planning and management. Such exercise is very important for hydro-climatic extremes. In many instances, a climatic time series is generally not statistically independent but is comprised of patterns of persistence, cycles, trends or some other non-random components. To see the importance of the subject, this paper describes the statistical approach used to investigate the presence and extent of persistence, trend and periodicity in climatic time series. The methodology was applied to investigate the spatial distribution pattern of the indicative hydro-climatic variables over the Yamuna River basin of India. Hydro-climatic time series used in the analysis were annual rainfall; Monsoon and Non-monsoon rainfall; annual, Monsoon and Non-monsoon rainydays; onset of effective monsoon; and aridity index.

Analysis of mid-twentieth century rainfall trends and variability over southwestern Uganda

“…The most popularly used non-parametric test is the Mann-Kendall (MK) test (Mann 1945;Kendall 1955). It has been widely used for different climatic variables in various trend studies including those of Kampata et al (2008), Kizza et al (2009), Ngongondo et al (2011), Rai et al (2010, and Nsubuga et al (2011). We applied the MK test at a significance level of 5 % to study the temporal trends of the following: (a) total annual rainfall and its coefficient of variability, (b) monthly total rainfall, and (c) seasonal total rainfall.…”

The nature of rainfall in the main drainage sub-basins of Uganda

“…Zhao (2011) used the entropy method to detect the spatial variability of precipitation over temporal scales in Xinjiang, China, which showed that precipitation was increasing especially in mountainous regions. Rai et al (2010) observed falling trends in temporal scales, including aridity index, over the Yamuna River basin in India. Moderate to high variations in inter-and intra-annual rainfall have been identified by Shahid and Khairulmaini (2009) in Bangladesh.…”

Assessment of Temperature Anomalies Trend at Local Scale for Delhi, India

“…It is found to be an excellent tool for trend detection and many researchers have used this test to assess the significance of trends in hydro-climatic time series such as water quality, stream flow, temperature and precipitation Ludwig et al [65], Zhang et al [66] Mc Bean [67] Basistha et al [8] Rai et al [58] Patra et al [11] Nalley et al [68] Pingle et al [13]. The MK test is applied to a time series ranked from and ranked from.…”

“…The normalized climatic time series were used to test the outliers present in the time series, which were obtained using following relationship Rai et al [58].…”

“…A significant level of 5% was used for autocorrelation of the rank ) (i s  , which produce the best overall empirical significance level. The advantages of using corrected variance that there is no need to either normalize data or their autocorrelation function Rai et al [58].…”