A study of rainfall trends and temporal variations within seven sub-basins of Uganda spanning from 1940 to 2009 has been made. Rainfall climatologies are constructed from observational data, using 36 station records which reflect hydroclimatic conditions. Long-term changes in rainfall characteristics were determined by non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Sen's T tests), coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index and drought severity index. Magnitude of change was estimated by applying Sen's estimator of slope. Decadal variability of rainfall with marked seasonal cycles is evident. Temporal variability of drought patterns is detected. Variations in annual rainfall are low with no significant trends observed in the main drainage sub-basins. Significant trends occur in October, November, December and January. A noticeable decrease in the annual total rainfall was observed mostly in northwestern and southwestern sub-basins. Rainfall trend in the second normal of June-July-August (JJA) was decreasing in all the main drainage sub-basins.Key words trend analysis; Mann-Kendall; Sen's T test; precipitation concentration index; drought severity index; drainage sub-basins; Uganda La nature des précipitations dans les principaux sous-bassins de l'Ouganda Résumé Une étude des tendances et des variations temporelles des précipitations dans sept sous-bassins de l'Ouganda à été réalisée sur lapériode allant de 1940 à 2009. La climatologie des précipitations a été construite à partir des données observées dans 36 stations représentatives des conditions hydroclimatiques. Les changements à long terme des caractéristiques des précipitations, coefficient de variation, indice de concentration des précipitations et indice de gravité de la sécheresse, ont été déterminés par des tests non paramétriques (test de Mann-Kendall et test T de Sen). L'amplitude du changement a été estimée en appliquant l'estimateur de pente de Sen. La variabilité décennale des précipitations aux cycles saisonniers marqués est évidente. La variabilité temporelle des phénomènes de sécheresse a été détectée. Les variations des précipitations annuelles sont faibles sans tendances significatives observées dans les principaux sous-bassins. Des tendances significatives ont été observées en octobre, novembre, décembre et janvier. Une diminution notable des précipitations totales annuelles a été observée principalement dans les sous bassins du Nord-ouest et du Sud-ouest. Une tendance à la décroissance des précipitations en juin-juillet-août (JJA) a été observée dans tous les sous-bassins principaux.

This paper investigates rainfall and temperature trends at Namulonge parish, in Wakiso district of Uganda using statistical techniques. Daily-observed temperature and rainfall records were aggregated into monthly means over a period of more than 55 years. These records were analyzed in an effort to identify both seasonal trends and shifts in climate. This was achieved by using non-parametric (Mann-Kendall) and parametric (linear regression) techniques. The analysis shows that total rainfall during the March-May season decreased, while maximum temperatures were increasing during the months between April and September, with both trends statistically significant at 5% confidence level. The Mann-Kendall test revealed that the number of wet days reduced significantly. Temperatures were found to be warmer and rainfall higher in the first climate normal compared to the recent 30 years. Results revealed that April was the only month with a statistically significant rainfall trend.

Malaria is classified as one of the major health problems globally; it is estimated that there are about 300-500 million cases and about one million deaths associated to malaria annually, with a larger percentage of malaria cases and deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (WHO, 2013a). However, there is a significant reduction in malaria cases and its associated death as a result of the use of Insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and Indoor residual

Purpose In view of the consensus that climate change is happening, scientists have documented several findings about Uganda’s recent climate, as well as its variability and change. The purpose of this study is to review what has been documented, thus it gives an overview of what is known and seeks to explain the implications of a changing climate, hence what ought to be known to create a climate resilient environment. Design/methodology/approach Terms such as “climate”, “climate change” and “climate variability” were identified in recent peer-reviewed published literature to find recent climate-related literature on Uganda. Findings from independent researchers and consultants are incorporated. Data obtained from rainfall and temperature observations and from COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CCLM CORDEX) data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used to generate spatial maps, seasonal outputs and projections using GrADS 2.02 and Geographic Information System (GIS) software for visualization. Findings The climate of Uganda is tropical in nature and influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), varied relief, geo-location and inland lakes, among other factors. The impacts of severe weather and climate trends and variability have been documented substantially in the past 20-30 years. Most studies indicated a rainfall decline. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are on the rise, while projections indicate a decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature both in the near and far future. The implication of these changes on society and the economy are discussed herein. Cost of inaction is expected to become huge, given factors like, the growing rate of the population and the slow expanding economy experienced in Uganda. Varied forms of adaptation to the impacts of climate change are being implemented, especially in the agricultural sector and at house hold level, though not systematically. Originality/value This review of scientific research findings aims to create a better understanding of the recent climate change and variability in Uganda and provides a baseline of summarized information for use in future research and actions.

Variability and trends in daily and monthly near-surface temperatures in Uganda, collected over the period 1960 to 2008 (49 years), are analyzed. For this purpose daily observational temperature records from eight selected stations in Uganda were acquired from the Uganda Meteorological Department (UMD). Data collected by the UMD are quality controlled through a rigorous process before being archived. The data received were tested for homogeneity, gaps were filled and simple correlation analyses were used for validation during the analysis.Statistical techniques (Mann-Kendall and linear regression) were employed to analyze temperature variability and to obtain temperature trends. Findings indicate that intra-annual temperature shows reduced variability over recent decades, but which is not statistically significant. An examination of intra-monthly trends in daily maximum and minimum 2 temperatures revealed a general decline of intra-annual variance of monthly temperature means.Results also demonstrated that maximum temperatures are more variable compared to minimum temperatures in Uganda. An increasing trend in hot days, hot nights, warm nights and warm spells were also detected. At seven of the stations, annual temperature range and diurnal temperature range trends were found to be negative. The finding that intra-annual and intramonthly variance is declining suggests that fewer anomalously extreme temperature episodes occur. The gap between maximum and minimum extremes is reducing, which supports the observation that minimum temperatures are on the increase Key words: Uganda, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, temperature variability. IntroductionThe climate science community agrees that changes in the frequency and intensity of climate events are likely to impact nature and society in future (Zhang et al, 2005;Easterling et al, 2003).Unfortunately, such changes are not well documented for some parts of the world, which raises concern amongst scientists, (Easterling et al., 2003;Mahli and Wright, 2004;New et al., 2006;Thornton et al., 2007). This is despite of the anticipation that climate change might have a profound effect on developing countries, of which many are located in Africa. Some studies that have documented changes in climate and climate variability and their impacts for Africa include:New et al., Kruger and Shongwe, (2004);Mahe et al., (2001);King'uyu et al., (2000), amongst others. The few regional studies conducted in Africa revealed that observed changes in climate are not spatially uniform (Kizza et al., 2009;Mubiru et al., 2009;Schreck and Semazzi, 2004;Nicholson, 1996;Basalirwa, 1995;Ogallo, 1993;Rodhe andVirji, 1976 andSamson, 1952) because of geographical and land-surface variations. Nevertheless, profiling these changes has enhanced the understanding of climate in the continent, and contributed to more informed decisions on, and respondes to, climate change.Studies on near-surface temperature changes conducted in Africa, and elsewhere in the world, have demonstrated...

Detection of changes in Earth surface features, for example lakes, is important for understanding the relationships between human and natural phenomena in order to manage better the increasingly scarce natural resources. This work presents a procedure of using Modified Normalised Difference Water Index (MNDWI) to detect fluctuations of Lake surface-water area and relate it to a changing climate. The study used radiometrically and geometrically rectified Landsat images for 1986, 1995 and 2010 encompassing the Kyoga Basin lakes of Uganda, in order to investigate the changes in surface-water area between the respective years. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Drought Severity Index (DSI) are applied to show the relationship between variability of surface-water area and climate parameters. The present analysis reveals that surface-water area fluctuation is linked to rainfall variability. In particular, Lake Kyoga sub-basin lakes experienced an increase in surface-water area in 2010 compared to 1986. This work has important implications to water resources management for Lake Kyoga and could be vital to water resource managers across Ugandan lakes.

Different land uses result in different vegetation condition and macro-fauna distribution in a landscape. Information on land use condition is paramount for development of strategies that enhance biodiversity conservation and sustainable resource use. A study was conducted to characterise the vegetation and termite distribution in the three land use types of protected area (PA), harvested woodland (HW) and traditional agriculture (TA) in Salima District, Malawi.Data were collected from 42 plots on tree species, diameter at breast height, regeneration, termite species and abundance. R Statistical package version 3.4.2 and GenStat Release version 14.2 were used for statistical analyses. There was significantly (p< 0.05) higher tree species diversity and stem density in the HW and TA than in the PA, supposedly, due to a positive tree harvesting effect on tree regeneration in the HW and TA as a form of disturbance. The HW and TA showed stable tree population while PA was characterised with an ageing tree population. Highest similsrity on tree species composition was recorded between TA and HW (48%). Regeneration was also significantly higher (p< 0.05) in HW and TA fields than in the PA. Macrotermes natalensis termite species dominated in all land uses with highest density and abundance in TA while Psammotermes allocerus was only found in the HW. We conclude that strict management of forest reserves may not achieve tree diversity; and recommend a 'suite' of management measures to balance conservation and promotion of tree diversity.Integrated pest management approach is proposed to prevent field crop losses due to termites.

The optimal management of natural resources like lakes requires understanding the relationship with other environmental elements. Remote sensing techniques using multi-temporal and multi-sensor images for change detection purposes are important in this regard. This study used a combination of approaches to detect changes in the lake surface area of Lake Sibayi in relation to changes in past climates. Delineation of the study area is achieved using WR2012 endoreic maps and Landsat satellite images from 1992 to 2016. Using data from eight meteorological stations past climate of the lake catchment was investigated. Thereafter, a multivariate correlation analysis is conducted to examine the relationship between the changes in the lake surface area and the changes in climatic (precipitation, temperature) variables and water levels. Results suggest that the lake surface area has decreased by 20% since 1992. There are significant changes in temperatures, while the annual rainfall totals declined significantly. The correlation between precipitation in the catchment and annual water level changes is 0.88. Statistically, significant increases in the water level and precipitation were experienced in 1993 and 2001. SPI analysis reveals that the study area is getting drier and the probability of recurrence of moderate dryness is 10%. The rate at which the lake is shrinking is not solely climatic related, as anthropogenic aspects are also responsible. To prevent further shrinkage of Lake Sibayi, it will be necessary to develop aggressive restoration policies and action plans aimed at maintaining inflows in the face of compounding climate change and water demand. Recommendations of the nature of further studies that can increase our understanding are included.