Temporal Patterns of Software Evolution Defects: A Comparative Analysis of Open Source and Closed Source Projects

Abstract

This study examines temporal patterns of software systems defects using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach. Defect reports from ten software application projects are analyzed; five of these projects are open source and five are closed source from two software vendors. Across all sampled projects, the ARIMA time series modeling technique provides accurate estimates of reported defects during software maintenance, with organizationally dependent parameterization. In contrast to causal models that require extraction of source-code level metrics, this approach is based on readily available defect report data and is less computation intensive. This approach can be used to improve software maintenance and evolution resource allocation decisions and to identify outlier projects—that is, to provide evidence of unexpected defect reporting patterns that may indicate troubled projects

Comparative Analysis of Available Models for Estimation of Software Reliability

“…), [16,17]; • software development for the prediction of denials [18]; • predicting defects by using genetic programming and time series [19,20]; • software reliability modeling using genetic algorithms [21].…”