Temporal dispersion of the emergence of intelligence: an inter-arrival time analysis

Abstract

Many reasons for why extraterrestrial intelligences might avoid communications with our civilization have been proposed. One possible scenario is that all civilizations follow the lead of some particularly distinguished civilization. This paper will examine the impact the first successful civilization could have on all other subsequent civilizations within its sphere of influence and the ramifications of this as it relates to the Fermi Paradox. Monte Carlo simulation is used to map the inter-arrival times of early civilizations and to highlight the immense epochs of time that the earliest civilizations could have had the Galaxy to themselves.

Extending Galactic Habitable Zone Modeling to Include the Emergence of Intelligent Life

“…Recent efforts to quantify the emergence of intelligent communicating civilizations within the Galaxy include those of Forgan (2009), Forgan and Rice (2010), and Hair (2011. The former two papers describe a Monte Carlo method to stochastically evaluate whether individual habitable planets reach a technological civilization.…”

“…Again, the findings provide useful insights into the co-temporality challenge of SETI. However, the model of Hair (2011) does not take into account the spatial and temporal variations of conditions conducive to the emergence of intelligence-a limitation also noted and discussed by Forgan (2011). Furthermore, in both models, the parameters assigned to their respective probability distributions are somewhat arbitrary, which is necessarily the case given that there is just one data point (the emergence of intelligence on Earth) with which to calibrate the models.…”

The Galactic Club or Galactic Cliques? Exploring the limits of interstellar hegemony and the Zoo Hypothesis

“…We can immediately see that the lowest group counts occur when σ arrive is at its minimum value. This is at direct odds with the result of Hair (2011), which prefers a relatively large value of σ arrive for hegemony establishment based on the consequently large inter-arrival time between the first and second civilisations. However, we find that for the largest values of σ arrive , the number of groups N group is at its maximum (i.e.…”

“…The development and policing of social norms requires, at the very least, causal contact between civilisations, and the existence of a "Galactic Club" to agree on these norms, as well as jurisprudence to deal with their violation (cf Freitas 1977). Hair (2011) argued that in a simple model of civilisation arrival, if the distribution of individual arrival times is Gaussian, then the time between the appearance of the first and second civilisations in the Milky Way, IAT 1 , follows an inverse exponential distribution (Snyder & Miller, 1991). This inter-arrival time can therefore be very large, meaning the first civilisation to arise is able to influence the others greatly, and thereby facilitate the setup of social norms and uniformity of motive across the entire Galaxy.…”

If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?

“…For the zoo hypothesis, see Ball (1973). 84 Pg 61 be in control of the universe Hair (2011) argues that if the oldest civilization still present in the Galaxy had a hundred million year "head start" on the next oldest civilization then they could have established a hegemony that guides the development of younger civilizations; in that case, he suggests, a modified zoo scenario is an appealing answer to the Fermi paradox. See Forgan (2011) for a criticism of the idea that a total hegemony could be established that would allow the zoo scenario to occur.…”