Temporal aggregation in diffusion models of first-time purchase: Does choice of frequency matter?

Putsis, William P.

doi:10.1016/0040-1625(95)00252-9

Cited by 25 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…They pointed out that the magnitude of the bias depends on the amount of noise in the data, the number of observations, and the differences between the cumulative penetration of the last observation and the true saturation penetration. Thus, one possible solution to minimize the bias is to increase the number of data points, which is consistent with the findings of Putsis (1996).…”

Section: Estimation With Model-endogenous Market Potentialsupporting

confidence: 74%

The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies

Massiani

Gohs

2015

Research in Transportation Economics

109

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Bass diffusion models are one of the competing paradigms to forecast the diffusion of innovative products or technologies. This approach posits that diffusion patterns can be modeled through two mechanisms: Innovators adopt the new product and imitators purchase the new product when getting in contact with existing users. Crucial for the implementation of the method are the values assigned to the two parameters, usually referred to as p and q, which mathematically describe innovation and imitation mechanisms. The present paper is based on the findings of a research project about policy measures to promote the diffusion of Electric Vehicles in Germany. It investigates how practitioners could choose adequate values for the Bass model parameters to forecast new automotive technologies diffusion with a focus on Electric Vehicles. It considers parameters provided by the literature as well as ad hoc parameter estimations based on real market data for Germany. Our investigation suggests that researchers may be in trouble in electing adequate parameter values since the different eligible parameter values exhibit dramatic variations. Literature values appear discussible and widely variable while ad hoc estimates appear poorly conclusive. A serious problem is that ad-hoc estimates of the Bass p value are highly sensitive to the assumed market potential M. So for plausible values of M, p varies on a high scale. Unless more consolidation takes place in this area, or more confidence can be placed on ad hoc estimates, these findings issue a warning for the users of such approaches and on the policy recommendations that would derive from their use.

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Section: Estimation With Model-endogenous Market Potentialsupporting

confidence: 74%

The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies

Massiani

Gohs

2015

Research in Transportation Economics

109

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“…Dodds (1973) and Nevers (1972) have devoted their research to algorithms of estimate of parameters. Schmittlein and Mahajan (1982), Srinivasan and Mason (1986), Putsis (1996), Van den Bulte and Lilien (1997) all defined in detail the approximation limits relating to resolution of the estimate by application of the least squares methods. Therefore, Grisáková (2013) recommends applying a non-linear algorithm or the method of maximum credibility.…”

Section: Introduction To Innovations Diffusion Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors affecting the receivables turnover

Kozhina¹

2017

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“…In this paper, we use Putsis' method to divide the date by quarter [8] , thus get a total of 22 samples. Collopy pointed out that a diffusion model can be accepted as followings: ① good of fitting and accuracy of prediction; ② superior to the traditional classical model; ③ enough samples.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diffusion model and empirical analysis of China-Brazil Earth Resource Satellite image

Zhang

Yan

2009

2009 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering

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Applications Satellite Industry is national strategic high-tech industry, and the key tache for its industrialization is to deepen Image diffusion in more economic and social fields. Based on the market structure and diffusion process of CBERS (China-Brazil Earth Resource Satellite) image, this paper analyses the characteristics of distribution and establishes three diffusion models of network channels, price strategies and competitive factors respectively. Empirical result shows speed of diffusion is fastened through online channel, but hampered by TM Image, and free distribution policy has no obvious impact on it. It is cost-efficient that influence the decision of potential adopter deeply. Further research takes all three factors into the nested model, and gives the simplest form including network factor and the most accurate form including network and competition factors.

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Temporal aggregation in diffusion models of first-time purchase: Does choice of frequency matter?

Cited by 25 publications

References 32 publications

The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies

The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies

Factors affecting the receivables turnover

Diffusion model and empirical analysis of China-Brazil Earth Resource Satellite image

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