Temperature-Humidity Index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin

Segnalini, Maria; Lacetera, Nicola; Bernabucci, U.; Nardone, A.

doi:10.1017/s2040470010000282

Cited by 26 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Earth's climate has warmed in the last century (IPCC, 2007) and is predicted to continually change at rates unprecedented in recent human history [IPCC, 2007, Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)]. In our recent study (Segnalini et al, 2013), we demonstrated a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal temperature-humidity index (THI) during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France, and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050) will range between 3 and 4 units.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Effect of summer season on milk protein fractions in Holstein cows

Bernabucci

Basiricò

Morera

et al. 2015

Journal of Dairy Science

170

125

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Milk characteristics are affected by heat stress, but very little information is available on changes of milk protein fractions and their relationship with cheesemaking properties of milk. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of hot season on milk protein fractions and cheesemaking properties of milk for Grana Padano cheese production. The study was carried out in a dairy farm with a cheese factory for transforming the milk to Grana Padano cheese. The study was carried out from June 2012 to May 2013. Temperature and relative humidity of the inside barn were recorded daily during the study period using 8 electronic data loggers programmed to record every 30 min. Constant managerial conditions were maintained during the experimental periods. During the experimental period, feed and diet characteristics, milk yield, and milk characteristics were recorded in summer (from June 29 to July 27, 2012), winter (from January 25 to March 8, 2013), and spring (from May 17 to May 31, 2013). Milk yield was recorded and individual milk samples were taken from 25 cows selected in each season during the p.m. milking. Content of fat, proteins, caseins (CN), lactose and somatic cell count (SCC), titratable acidity, and milk rennet coagulation properties were determined on fresh samples. Milk protein fraction concentrations were determined by the sodium dodecyl sulfate-PAGE. Data were tested for nonnormality by the Shapiro-Wilk test. In case of nonnormality, parameters were normalized by log or exponential transformation. The data were analyzed with repeated measures ANOVA using a mixed model procedure. For all the main milk components (fat, protein, total solids, and solids-not-fat), the lowest values were observed in the summer and the greatest values were observed in the winter. Casein fractions, with the exception of γ-CN, showed the lowest values in the summer and the greatest values in the winter. The content of IgG and serum albumin was greater in summer than in the winter and spring. A mild effect of season was observed for milk SCC, with greater values in summer than in the winter and spring. A worsening of milk coagulation properties was observed in summer season. The alteration of cheesemaking properties during hot season seems strictly linked with changes of milk protein fractions mainly with the decrease of αS-CN and β-CN and the increase of undefined proteins.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Effect of summer season on milk protein fractions in Holstein cows

Bernabucci

Basiricò

Morera

et al. 2015

Journal of Dairy Science

170

125

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“…Earlier other authors used one climate model, one emission scenario and the outdoor THI to perform a similar study for Spain (Segnalini et al, 2013). Our study, on the other hand, was based on a model ensemble and used an indoor THI together with multiple recent emission scenarios to cover the full range of future socioeconomic pathways.…”

Section: Rcp Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our study, on the other hand, was based on a model ensemble and used an indoor THI together with multiple recent emission scenarios to cover the full range of future socioeconomic pathways. Segnalini et al (2013) derived a slight increase in the heat stress risk mainly in summer. Our results based on the indoor THI under RCP 2.6 were well in line with this former study.…”

Section: Rcp Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts

et al. 2019

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Abstract. In the last decades, a global warming trend was observed. Along with the temperature increase, modifications in the humidity and wind regime amplify the regional and local impacts on livestock husbandry. Direct impacts include the occurrence of climatic stress conditions. In Europe, cows are economically highly relevant and are mainly kept in naturally ventilated buildings that are most susceptible to climate change. The high-yielding cows are particularly vulnerable to heat stress. Modifications in housing management are the main measures taken to improve the ability of livestock to cope with these conditions. Measures are typically taken in direct reaction to uncomfortable conditions instead of in anticipation of a long-term risk for climatic stress. Measures that balance welfare, environmental and economic issues are barely investigated in the context of climate change and are thus almost not available for commercial farms. Quantitative analysis of the climate change impacts on animal welfare and linked economic and environmental factors is rare. Therefore, we used a numerical modeling approach to estimate the future heat stress risk in such dairy cattle husbandry systems. The indoor climate was monitored inside three reference barns in central Europe and the Mediterranean regions. An artificial neuronal network (ANN) was trained to relate the outdoor weather conditions provided by official meteorological weather stations to the measured indoor microclimate. Subsequently, this ANN model was driven by an ensemble of regional climate model projections with three different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. For the evaluation of the heat stress risk, we considered the number and duration of heat stress events. Based on the changes in the heat stress events, various economic and environmental impacts were estimated. The impacts of the projected increase in heat stress risk varied among the barns due to different locations and designs as well as the anticipated climate change (considering different climate models and future greenhouse gas concentrations). There was an overall increasing trend in number and duration of heat stress events. At the end of the century, the number of annual stress events can be expected to increase by up to 2000, while the average duration of the events increases by up to 22 h compared to the end of the last century. This implies strong impacts on economics, environment and animal welfare and an urgent need for mid-term adaptation strategies. We anticipated that up to one-tenth of all hours of a year, correspondingly one-third of all days, will be classified as critical heat stress conditions. Due to heat stress, milk yield may decrease by about 2.8 % relative to the present European milk yield, and farmers may expect financial losses in the summer season of about 5.4 % of their monthly income. In addition, an increasing demand for emission reduction measures must be expected, as an emission increase of about 16 Gg of ammonia and 0.1 Gg of methane per year can be expected under the anticipated heat stress conditions. The cattle respiration rate increases by up to 60 %, and the standing time may be prolonged by 1 h. This causes health issues and increases the probability of medical treatments. The various impacts imply feedback loops in the climate system which are presently underexplored. Hence, future in-depth studies on the different impacts and adaptation options at different stress levels are highly recommended.

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“…This would indicate that high summer temperatures in SLO were compensated, on average, by low minimum values, yielding average daily values closer to BEL and LUX than to SPA. When following the approach of Segnalini et al (2013), approximately 10, 20, and 30% of the records in BEL/LUX, SLO, and SPA, respectively, have been taken, at least, under discomfort conditions (72 ≤ THI < 75), whereas 10 and 20% of records were measured under alert conditions (75 ≤ THI < 79) only in SLO and SPA, respectively. Figure 1 shows raw average of yields recorded at successive THI max and THI avg units together with solutions for THI effects obtained from the LSTHI model in [1].…”

Section: Data Summary Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions

Carabaño

Logar

Bormann³

et al. 2016

Journal of Dairy Science

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Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The estimated correlations between comfort and THIavg values of 70 (which represents the upper end of the THIavg scale in BEL-LUX) were lower for BEL-LUX (0.70-0.80) than for SPA (0.83-0.85). Overall, animals producing in the more temperate climates and semi-extensive grazing systems of BEL and LUX showed HS at lower heat loads and more re-ranking across the THI scale than animals producing in the warmer climate and intensive indoor system of SPA.

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Temperature-Humidity Index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin

Cited by 26 publications

References 3 publications

Effect of summer season on milk protein fractions in Holstein cows

Effect of summer season on milk protein fractions in Holstein cows

Heat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts

Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions

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