Temperature dependence of volatile organic compound evaporative emissions from motor vehicles

Rubin, Juli I.; Kean, Andrew J.; Harley, Robert A.; Millet, Dylan B.; Goldstein, Allen H.

doi:10.1029/2005jd006458

Cited by 125 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The increased emissions during hot periods were attributed to light hydrocarbons that are associated with headspace evaporative emissions. These results are generally consistent with an ambient source apportionment study that estimated a 6.5% AE 2.5% increase in the contributions of evaporative emissions from motor vehicles per degree Celsius increase in maximum temperature (Rubin et al, 2006). Although the NMHC emission rates predicted by all three models were in good agreement with measurements during cool periods, the running evaporative emissions for all models exhibited insufficient sensitivity to temperature during hot periods, especially MOVES.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Comparison of the MOVES2010a, MOBILE6.2, and EMFAC2007 mobile source emission models with on-road traffic tunnel and remote sensing measurements

Fujita

Campbell

Zielińska

et al. 2012

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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The Desert Research Institute conducted an on-road mobile source emission study at a traffic tunnel in Van Nuys, California, in August 2010 to measure fleet-averaged, fuel-based emission factors. The study also included remote sensing device (RSD) measurements by the University of Denver of 13,000 vehicles near the tunnel. The tunnel and RSD fleet-averaged emission factors were compared in blind fashion with the corresponding modeled factors calculated by ENVIRON International Corporation using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) MOVES2010a (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) and MOBILE6.2 mobile source emission models, and California Air Resources Board's (CARB's) EMFAC2007 (EMission FACtors) emission model. With some exceptions, the fleet-averaged tunnel, RSD, and modeled carbon monoxide (CO) and oxide of nitrogen (NO x ) emission factors were in reasonable agreement (AE25%). The nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emission factors (specifically the running evaporative emissions) predicted by MOVES were insensitive to ambient temperature as compared with the tunnel measurements and the MOBILE-and EMFAC-predicted emission factors, resulting in underestimation of the measured NMHC/NO x ratios at higher ambient temperatures. Although predicted NMHC/NO x ratios are in good agreement with the measured ratios during cooler sampling periods, the measured NMHC/NO x ratios are 3.1, 1.7, and 1.4 times higher than those predicted by the MOVES, MOBILE, and EMFAC models, respectively, during high-temperature periods. Although the MOVES NO x emission factors were generally higher than the measured factors, most differences were not significant considering the variations in the modeled factors using alternative vehicle operating cycles to represent the driving conditions in the tunnel. The three models predicted large differences in NO x and particle emissions and in the relative contributions of diesel and gasoline vehicles to total NO x and particulate carbon (TC) emissions in the tunnel.Implications: Although advances have been made to mobile source emission models over the past two decades, the evidence that mobile source emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in urban areas were underestimated by as much as a factor of 2-3 in past inventories underscores the need for on-going verification of emission inventories. Results suggest that there is an overall increase in motor vehicle NMHC emissions on hot days that is not fully accounted for by the emission models. Hot temperatures and concomitant higher ratios of NMHC emissions relative to NO x both contribute to more rapid and efficient formation of ozone. Also, the ability of EPA's MOVES model to simulate varying vehicle operating modes places increased importance on the choice of operating modes to evaluate project-level emissions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Comparison of the MOVES2010a, MOBILE6.2, and EMFAC2007 mobile source emission models with on-road traffic tunnel and remote sensing measurements

Fujita

Campbell

Zielińska

et al. 2012

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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“…Other studies have shown linkages between a warmer climate and increased evaporative emissions from mobile sources (Rubin et al, 2006), increased electricity usage (Mideksa and Kallbekken, 2010), and increased wildfire activity over parts of the United States (Yue et al, 2013), all of which could lead to even greater health impacts from climate than shown here.…”

Section: Limitationscontrasting

confidence: 38%

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

Fann

Nolte

Dolwick

et al. 2014

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1-4°C and 1-5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).Implications: Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1-5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

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“…Higher temperatures increase the demand for air conditioning in summer when ozone and PM concentrations are highest. Evaporative emissions of anthropogenic NMVOCs also increase, although the effect determined for mobile sources is relatively weak, in the range 1.3-5% K À1 (Cardelino and Chameides, 1990;Rubin et al, 2006).…”

Section: Implications For Air Quality Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of climate change on air quality

Jacob

Winner

2009

Atmospheric Environment

1,585

1,232

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a b s t r a c tAir quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due to a weaker global circulation and a decreasing frequency of mid-latitude cyclones. The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming. Coupled GCM-CTM studies find that climate change alone will increase summertime surface ozone in polluted regions by 1-10 ppb over the coming decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. This climate penalty means that stronger emission controls will be needed to meet a given air quality standard. Higher water vapor in the future climate is expected to decrease the ozone background, so that pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect of climate change on particulate matter (PM) is more complicated and uncertain than for ozone. Precipitation frequency and mixing depth are important driving factors but projections for these variables are often unreliable. GCM-CTM studies find that climate change will affect PM concentrations in polluted environments by AE0.1-1 mg m À3 over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become an increasingly important PM source. Major issues that should be addressed in future research include the ability of GCMs to simulate regional air pollution meteorology and its sensitivity to climate change, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and the atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. Research needs to be undertaken on the effect of climate change on mercury, particularly in view of the potential for a large increase in mercury soil emissions driven by increased respiration in boreal ecosystems.

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Temperature dependence of volatile organic compound evaporative emissions from motor vehicles

Cited by 125 publications

References 21 publications

Comparison of the MOVES2010a, MOBILE6.2, and EMFAC2007 mobile source emission models with on-road traffic tunnel and remote sensing measurements

Comparison of the MOVES2010a, MOBILE6.2, and EMFAC2007 mobile source emission models with on-road traffic tunnel and remote sensing measurements

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

Effect of climate change on air quality

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