Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Smith, Thomas P.; Flaxman, Seth; Gallinat, Amanda S.; Kinosian, Sylvia P.; Stemkovski, Michael; Unwin, H. Juliette T.; Watson, Oliver J; Whittaker, Charles; Cattarino, Lorenzo; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Tristem, Michael; Pearse, William D.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2019284118

Cited by 103 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…This is understandable since the amount of asymptomatic testing taking place during the Fall 2020 semester of individuals not affiliated with IHEs is quite low [37]. The model also reports a negative correlation with average temperature, which is consistent with previous research [38] and is broadly intuitive: as winter approaches, people in colder counties may be more likely to spend their time indoors, which may facilitate easier transmission of the virus. The model also finds the expected importance of control variables such as the median income variable (negative correlation with deaths) and population over 60 (positive correlation with deaths).…”

Section: Quantifying the Benefits Of Ihe-affiliated Testingsupporting

confidence: 85%

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy

Klein

Generous

Chinazzi

et al. 2021

Preprint

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With a dataset of testing and case counts from over 1,400 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the United States, we analyze the number of infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in the counties surrounding these IHEs during the Fall 2020 semester (August to December, 2020). We used a matching procedure designed to create groups of counties that are aligned along age, race, income, population, and urban/rural categories---socio-demographic variables that have been shown to be correlated with COVID-19 outcomes. We find that counties with IHEs that remained primarily online experienced fewer cases and deaths during the Fall 2020 semester; whereas before and after the semester, these two groups had almost identical COVID-19 incidence. Additionally, we see fewer deaths in counties with IHEs that reported conducting any on-campus testing compared to those that reported none. We complement the statistical analysis with a case study of IHEs in Massachusetts---a rich data state in our dataset---which further highlights the importance of IHE-affiliated testing for the broader community. The results in this work suggest that campus testing can itself be thought of as a mitigation policy and that allocating additional resources to IHEs to support efforts to regularly test students and staff would be beneficial to mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in the general population.

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Section: Quantifying the Benefits Of Ihe-affiliated Testingsupporting

confidence: 85%

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy

Klein

Generous

Chinazzi

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In addition, official data concerning the viral strains and correlate that with the epidemic characteristic of the population were lacking. Although high temperature in Saudi Arabia could be a factor that influence the findings of this study, data from the United States found that lower temperatures was correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission [ 33 ]. Therefore, further investigation concerning this issue is recommended to be explored in future studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Anti-Spike IgG Antibody in Women and Children in Madinah, Saudi Arabia: A Single-Center Study

Mahallawi

Ibrahim

Aljohani

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Information on the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in women and children in Madinah has been limited. The current study aimed to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 IgG seropositivity among women and children at Madinah Maternity and Children’s Hospital. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 579 participants were recruited between January and April 2021 from Madinah Maternity and Children’s Hospital, Saudi Arabia. Data concerning age, sex (for children), blood group, and height and weight (for women) were collected from the hospital database. SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike (anti-S) IgG antibodies were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results: Over 58% of children (n = 195), including 60% of children ≤1 year (n = 75), and 50.2% (n = 124) of women were SARS-CoV-2 anti-S IgG seropositive. Significantly higher anti-S IgG levels were observed in children than in women (0.78 ± 1.05 vs. 0.65 ± 0.98, p = 0.008). Compared with women, children had higher odds of high SARS-CoV-2 anti-S IgG levels (odds ratio: 1.41; 95% confidence interval: 1.01–1.97; p = 0.041). No significant associations were observed for anti-S IgG levels with age in women or children or with body mass index among women. Conclusion: Non-reported COVID-19 infections were more prevalent among children than women, and non-reported COVID-19 infections children represent a viral transmission risk; therefore, increased screening, especially among school-aged children, may represent an important COVID-19 preventive control measure.

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“…Accordingly, Sweden had the largest number of transmission clusters and, together with Denmark, also the most enduring. Moreover, our results also point to an increase of COVID-19 transmission clusters during winter, which could be due to the cold winter climate leading to increased indoor-based activities and thus increased contact frequencies for transmission (8). Alternatively, the increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the winter months could result from more relaxed COVID-19 intervention measures during the autumn (1).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Assessment of COVID-19 intervention strategies in the Nordic countries using genomic epidemiology

Duchêne

Blasio

Holmes

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The Nordic countries, defined here as Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland, are known for their comparable demographics and political systems. Since these countries implemented different COVID-19 intervention strategies, they provide a natural laboratory for examining how COVID-19 policies and mitigation strategies affected the propagation, evolution and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We explored how the duration, the size and number of transmission clusters, defined as country-specific monophyletic groups in a SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic tree, differed between the Nordic countries. We found that Sweden had the largest number of COVID-19 transmission clusters followed by Denmark, Norway, Finland and Iceland. Moreover, Sweden and Denmark had the largest, and most enduring, transmission clusters followed by Norway, Finland and Iceland. In addition, there was a significant positive association between transmission cluster size and duration, suggesting that the size of transmission clusters could be reduced by rapid and effective contact tracing. Thus, these data indicate that to reduce the general burden of COVID-19 there should be a focus on limiting dense gatherings and their subsequent contacts to keep the number, size and duration of transmission clusters to a minimum. Our results further suggest that although geographical connectivity, population density and openness influence the spread and the size of SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters, country-specific intervention strategies had the largest single impact.

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Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Cited by 103 publications

References 52 publications

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Anti-Spike IgG Antibody in Women and Children in Madinah, Saudi Arabia: A Single-Center Study

Assessment of COVID-19 intervention strategies in the Nordic countries using genomic epidemiology

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