Teleconnection between mean sea level pressure in the North Atlantic for September, the AMO phase and mean temperature in Central Europe for December (1896–2015)

Abstract

According to the present study, an atmospheric teleconnection is likely to exist between mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in the North Atlantic at early autumn (September) and temperature in Central Europe at early winter (December) based on the last 120 years. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) might play an important role in this teleconnection, determining its direction. During a positive AMO phase, a North Atlantic MSLP above average in September is frequently followed by a colder-than-average December in Central Europe (in 80% of cases) whereas a warmer-than-average December is often observed in Central Europe after an under-average MSLP in the North Atlantic in September. According to the present investigation, this is caused by a strong tendency for blocking patterns over Northern Europe (mostly over the British Isles and Scandinavia) in the last month of the year, in the first case, and a weak tendency for that, in the second case. During a negative AMO phase, this connection is less certain. In the strong negative AMO phase between 1903 and 1925, the connection became reversed compared with that observed during the positive AMO phase. However, it was significantly strong. Within the much weaker negative AMO phase between 1963 and 1994, the connection was weaker, but rather similar to that observed during positive AMO phases. Since the revealed atmospheric teleconnection is characterized by a threemonth delay, it possesses a prognostic value and can be used to predict the probability of temperature anomaly.

Reconciling Roles of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Warming in Driving Observed Arctic Atmospheric River Trends

“…A positive AMO thus acts to reduce ARs over the Beaufort Sea. Although the results presented here are based only on the LENS2, such IPO and AMO associated circulation changes are consistent with observations [39][40][41] , and can be reproduced by two other large ensembles, except for the AMO-induced circulation anomalies in CNRM (Extended Data Fig. 8).…”

Contrasting features of hydroclimatic teleconnections and the predictability of seasonal rainfall over east and west Japan

“…1 | INTRODUCTION Globally, regional hydrological processes such as droughts and floods are associated with variations in the large-scale coupled oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns (Philipp et al, 2007;Brandimarte et al, 2011;Willems, 2013;Qiu et al, 2014;Lee and Julien, 2016;Alizadeh-Choobari, 2017;Babolcsai and Hirsch, 2018;Dogar et al, 2018). The teleconnections from the leading modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), affect the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation globally, leading to associated hydrological extremes (e.g.…”