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Abstract:In June 2016, an unusual East Coast Low storm affected some 2000 km of the eastern seaboard of Australia bringing heavy rain, strong winds and powerful wave conditions. While wave heights offshore of Sydney were not exceptional, nearshore wave conditions were such that beaches experienced some of the worst erosion in 40 years. Hydrodynamic modelling of wave and current behaviour as well as contemporaneous sand transport shows the east to north-east storm wave direction to be the major determinant of erosion magnitude. This arises because of reduced energy attenuation across the continental shelf and the focussing of wave energy on coastal sections not equilibrated with such wave exposure under the prevailing south-easterly wave climate. Narrabeen-Collaroy, a well-known erosion hot spot on Sydney's Northern Beaches, is shown to be particularly vulnerable to storms from this direction because the destructive erosion potential is amplified by the influence of the local embayment geometry. We demonstrate the magnified erosion response that occurs when there is bi-directionality between an extreme wave event and preceding modal conditions and the importance of considering wave direction in extreme value analyses.

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Wave climate and Pacific basin coastalbehaviour associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is understood at a reconnaissance level, but the coastal response to different central Pacific (CP) versus eastern Pacific (EP)flavours of ENSO is unknown. We show that CP ENSO events produce different patterns of directional wave power to EP ENSO along the southeast Australian shelf and southwest Pacific region, because of significant variability in trade-wind wave generation. The modulation of the trade wind wave climate during CP ENSO has thus far been neglected in existing coastal process studies.We also show that coastal change between CP and EP ENSO cannot be inferred from shifts in the deepwater wave climate. This is because variability in trade wind wave generation is masked in deepwater by the persistence of high power extra-tropical waves that have reduced impact on nearshore processes due to high wave refraction. Morphodynamic modelling in a

Tropical expansion is potentially an amplifier of coastal change in the subtropics, through directional wave climate shifts. The storm wave climate and directional wave power distribution along the Southeast Australian Shelf (SEAS) is investigated with respect to tropical extent. Forty years of storm wave observations from nine midshelf wave buoys are evaluated using synoptic storm wave typing. A robust latitudinal and along‐shelf gradient in storm wave types and wave propagation patterns exists. The tropical origin storms produce a shore‐normal propagation pattern along the SEAS, reduce the connectivity of coastal compartments through minor headland bypassing events or episodically reversing the net northward transport. In contrast, the extratropical origin storms produce a shore‐oblique propagation pattern from the Southern Tasman to the Coral Sea, and are an important control on the connectivity of regional longshore sand transport through episodic major headland bypassing events between compartments, and the maintenance of down‐drift coastlines in dynamic equilibrium. Future climate change projections indicate that the recent trend in the expansion of the latitudinal extent of the tropics in the south‐west Pacific region will continue throughout this century. The combined impacts of a projected 2.5° poleward shift on the storm wave climate is a significant reduction in net northward longshore sand transport and the efficiency of headland bypassing events. On the North and Central Coasts of New South Wales we project a ∼30% reduction in longshore sand transport for the dominant extratropical‐origin storm events, together with a ∼5% increase in reversed (net southward) longshore sand transport for tropical‐origin storm events.

Long-term variability of the wave climate induces interannual to multidecadal fluctuations of the shoreline (

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