2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002187
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Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract: Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual chang… Show more

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Cited by 11 publications
(14 citation statements)
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References 39 publications
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“…power availability and performance metrics. This result, which confirms previously reported findings 6,16 , is due to the relatively small percentage (4.5% wind, 10.7% solar) of California electricity demand that is met by wind and solar in the 2018 version of the grid, as well as the smaller range in interannual variability observed in wind speeds and solar irradiance compared to hydropower (see Figure S3).…”
Section: Relationships Between Hydrometeorology and Performance Metricssupporting
confidence: 91%
“…power availability and performance metrics. This result, which confirms previously reported findings 6,16 , is due to the relatively small percentage (4.5% wind, 10.7% solar) of California electricity demand that is met by wind and solar in the 2018 version of the grid, as well as the smaller range in interannual variability observed in wind speeds and solar irradiance compared to hydropower (see Figure S3).…”
Section: Relationships Between Hydrometeorology and Performance Metricssupporting
confidence: 91%
“…To the extent that lower SWE/P is associated with greater monthly complementarity of solar and hydroelectric power generation, future decreases in SWE/P could have implications for grid operations and capacity planning. Low hydroelectric power generation is a major driver of high electricity prices, regardless of power sector scenario (Wessel et al 2022). The same study also found that shortfalls were most common when hydropower was unavailable during late summer heat events and that abundant hydropower in spring months tended to result in very low electricity prices.…”
Section: Implications For Grid Operation and Planningmentioning
confidence: 79%
“…As of the time of publication. The contributions span various geographic and topical focal areas, as well as capture different system and sector processes (Chowdhury et al., 2021; Quinn et al., 2020; Wessel et al., 2022; Wild et al., 2021).…”
Section: Multisector Dynamics: Origin Definitions Questions and Conne...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Exponentially scaling hypothesis generation and exploration require a broader and deeper workforce developed using active commitments to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Figure 8 summarizes the The contributions span various geographic and topical focal areas, as well as capture different system and sector processes (Chowdhury et al, 2021;Quinn et al, 2020;Wessel et al, 2022;Wild et al, 2021).…”
Section: Strengthening Foundational Research Capabilitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%