Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human‐Earth Systems

Reed, Patrick M.; Hadjimichael, Antonia; Moss, Richard H.; Brelsford, Christa; Burleyson, Casey D.; Cohen, Stuart; Dyreson, Ana; Gold, David V.; Gupta, Rohini S.; Keller, Klaus; Konar, Megan; Monier, Erwan; Morris, Jennifer; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Voisin, Nathalie; Yoon, Jim

doi:10.1029/2021ef002621

Cited by 70 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 113 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Energy transitions in socio‐economic systems will involve complex interactions among sectors, which are intricately linked through trade (the output of one sector is often the input to other sectors) and infrastructure, as well between human and Earth systems as society attempts to achieve long‐term climate goals. The relatively new field of MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) has recognized the need to develop a deeper understanding of the interactions, interdependencies and coevolution of sectors and systems, and has embraced uncertainty analysis and quantification as a research priority toward the goal of providing information relevant for decision‐making (Moss et al., 2016; Reed, Hadjimichael, Moss, Brelsford, et al., 2022, Reed, Hadjimichael, Moss, Monier, et al., 2022). In that vein, we seek to quantify socioeconomic uncertainties, employing a multi‐sector, multi‐region model of the world economy that captures the cross‐sectoral impacts of energy transitions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…To address interdependencies between sectors, multisector dynamics (MSD) frames the study of interacting sectors as that of a “systems of systems,” acknowledging that the vulnerability, risk, and resilience of any given sector is nearly always intertwined with that of many others (Haimes, 2018; Reed et al., 2022). Such a view of sectors and their interactions calls for a complex adaptive systems approach for the understanding of cross‐sectoral interactions and the role of humans therein (Moss et al., 2016).…”

Section: Introduction—modeling the Complexity Of Multisector Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The role of individual and collective human action is increasingly recognized as a prominent and arguably paramount determinant in shaping the behavior, trajectory, and vulnerability of multisector systems. This human influence operates at multiple scales: from short‐term (hourly to daily) to long‐term (annually to centennial) timescales, and from the local to the global, pushing systems toward either desirable or undesirable outcomes. However, the effort to represent human systems in multisector models has been fragmented across philosophical, methodological, and disciplinary lines. To cohere insights across diverse modeling approaches, we present a new typology for classifying how human actors are represented in the broad suite of coupled human‐natural system models that are applied in MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research. The typology conceptualizes a “sector” as a system‐of‐systems that includes a diverse group of human actors, defined across individual to collective social levels, involved in governing, provisioning, and utilizing products, goods, or services toward some human end. We trace the salient features of modeled representations of human systems by organizing the typology around two key questions: (a) Who are the actors in MSD systems and what are their actions? (b) How and for what purpose are these actors and actions operationalized in a computational model? We use this typology to critically examine existing models and chart the frontier of human systems modeling for MSD research.

show abstract

“…The water scarcity analysis we conduct in this study is rooted in an explicit characterization of global multisector dynamic interactions across systems and scales (Reed et al., 2022), including within LAC. Most research on the future of water in Latin America has not taken a multisector, multi‐scale approach (DeVincentis et al., 2021), though previous studies have demonstrated the importance of this style of analysis (Santos Da Silva et al., 2019; Wild, Khan, Zhao, et al., 2021), particularly given the strong linkages between the region's water and land systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity.

show abstract

Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human‐Earth Systems

Abstract: The broader global community is navigating evolving climate risks, rapid energy transitions, and the growing recognition that sustainable future pathways will require fundamental transformations in our collective management of socio-environmental systems (de Vos et al.

Cited by 70 publications

References 113 publications

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About