Technological Change and the Stock Market

Laitner, John; Stolyarov, Dmitriy

doi:10.1257/000282803769206287

Cited by 119 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(50 reference statements)

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“…31 Laitner and Stolyarov (2001) also stress the importance of including complementary capital in a growth accounting exercise.…”

Section: Tfp Measurement With Unobserved Inputs and Outputmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?

Basu¹,

Fernald²,

Oulton³

et al. 2003

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We argue that unmeasured investments in intangible organizational capital-associated with the role of information and communications technology (ICT) as a 'general purpose technology'-can explain the divergent U.S. and U.K. TFP performance after 1995. GPT stories suggest that measured TFP should rise in ICT-using sectors, perhaps with long lags. Contemporaneously, investments in ICT may in fact be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. In both the U.S. and U.K., we find a strong correlation between ICT use and industry TFP growth. The U.S. results, in particular, are consistent with GPT stories: the TFP acceleration was located primarily in ICT-using industries and is positively correlated with industry ICT capital growth from the 1980s and early 1990s. Indeed, as GPT stories suggest, controlling for past ICT growth, industry TFP growth appears negatively correlated with increases in ICT capital services in the late 1990s. A somewhat different picture emerges for the U.K. TFP growth does not appear correlated with lagged ICT capital growth. But TFP growth in the late 1990s is strongly and positively associated with the growth of ICT capital services, while being strongly and negatively associated with the growth of ICT investment.

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“…31 Laitner and Stolyarov (2001) also stress the importance of including complementary capital in a growth accounting exercise.…”

Section: Tfp Measurement With Unobserved Inputs and Outputmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?

Basu¹,

Fernald²,

Oulton³

et al. 2003

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show abstract

“…Most vintage capital models, like those by Johansen (1959), Solow (1960), Gilchrist andWilliams (2000,2001) and Laitner and Stolyarov (2002), imply or assume that firms/countries do only invest in the frontier technology. Hence, once the new vintage is introduced there is no additional gross investment in older vintages and the part of the net capital stock embodying these older vintages decreases because of depreciation.…”

Section: Vintage Capital Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Cross-country technology adoption: making the theories face the facts

Comín

Hobijn

2004

Journal of Monetary Economics

392

276

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractWe examine the diffusion of more than twenty technologies across twenty-three of the world's leading industrial economies. Our evidence covers major technology classes such as textile production, steel manufacture, communications, information technology, transportation, and electricity for the period 1788-2001. We document the common patterns observed in the diffusion of this broad range of technologies.Our results suggest a pattern of trickle-down diffusion that is remarkably robust across technologies. Most of the technologies that we consider originate in advanced economies and are adopted there first. Subsequently, they trickle down to countries that lag economically. Our panel data analysis indicates that the most important determinants of the speed at which a country adopts technologies are the country's human capital endowment, type of government, degree of openness to trade, and adoption of predecessor technologies. We also find that the overall rate of diffusion has increased markedly since World War II because of the convergence in these variables across countries.

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“…It is constructed using a depreciation rate that is constant over time. This misses the unevenness of obsolescence, especially during episodes of revolutionary change (see Laitner and Stolyarov (2002)). …”

Section: Calibration/estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…if and only if (4)- (5) hold. We can solve for T C (y) explicitly using the first order conditions (27):…”

Section: Appendix 2: Proofsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first new element makes our framework potentially consistent with the popular idea that the U.S. economy underwent a profound change due to the IT revolution, and it relates transforming changes to low frequency stock market cycles. The second element allows our model to match recent large discrepancies between the market value of businesses and the production cost of their physical capital (see, for example, Hall, 2001 andLaitner andStolyarov, 2002). The third element enables us to derive new estimates of aggregate returns to scale and to identify separately the contribution of input accumulation to growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change: theory and measurement using stock market data

Laitner

Stolyarov

2004

Journal of Monetary Economics

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We develop a new general equilibrium growth accounting framework that features increasing returns to scale, imperfect competition and incorporates technological revolutions into the description of technical progress. We propose a way to tell apart revolutionary changes in technology and incremental innovations using stock market data. We use our framework to jointly estimate the overall embodied TFP change during 1953-1995 and the aggregate output elasticity. We find that the IT revolution raised the aggregate TFP level by about 20%. We suggest a 1.09-1.11 range for the aggregate returns to scale.

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Technological Change and the Stock Market

Cited by 119 publications

References 30 publications

The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?

The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?

Cross-country technology adoption: making the theories face the facts

Aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change: theory and measurement using stock market data

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