Technical note: Regression analysis in adult age estimation

Aykroyd, Robert G.; Lucy, David; Pollard, A. M.; Solheim, Tore

doi:10.1002/(sici)1096-8644(199710)104:2<259::aid-ajpa11>3.0.co;2-z

Cited by 133 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…This fact is demonstrated graphically in Figure 4 of Aykroyd et al (1997); see also Davison (2003), pp. 203-206 for an excellent discussion of the effect of different types of censoring.…”

Section: Statistical Assumptions In Age-at-death Estimationmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Regression of y on x then minimises the errors in the direction in which they occur, but this is not the case for the regression of x on y. Additional practical problems are mentioned in Aykroyd et al (1997): the variance of the predicted ages is larger for the regression of x on y than y on x, and the confidence intervals are of a more complicated form.…”

Section: Both Indicators Presentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…See, for instance, Masset (1982, 1996); Frankenberg (1992, 1994); Lucy et al (1996); Konigsberg et al (1997); Aykroyd et al (1997Aykroyd et al ( , 1999; Hoppa and Vaupel (2002b). Several authors have suggested that regression techniques result in systematic under-or over-aging of skeletons (Konigsberg and Frankenberg, 1994;Konigsberg et al, 1997;Aykroyd et al, 1997Aykroyd et al, , 1999. Consequently, a variety of other statistical methods have been explored with the aim of eliminating this apparent bias (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, a variety of other statistical methods have been explored with the aim of eliminating this apparent bias (e.g. Konigsberg and Frankenberg (1992, 1994; BouquetAppel and Masset (1996); Lucy et al (1996); Konigsberg et al (1997); Aykroyd et al (1997Aykroyd et al ( , 1999; Boldsen et al (2002); Konigsberg and Herrman (2002)). This research has culminated in the book 'Paleodemography', edited by Hoppa and Vaupel (2002b), in which the authors conclude that aging of skeletal remains should utilise methods based on an application of Bayes' theorem in order to obtain age-at-death estimates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death: statistical assumptions and applications

Samworth¹,

Gowland²

2006

Intl J of Osteoarchaeology

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We examine the statistical assumptions underlying different techniques of estimating the age-at-death of a skeleton from one or more age indicators. The preferred method depends on which property of the distribution of the data in the reference sample is preserved in the skeleton to be aged. In cases where the conditional distribution of age given indicator is preserved, we provide 'look-up' tables giving essentially unbiased age estimates and prediction intervals, using a large reference sample and the auricular surface and pubic symphysis age indicators. Where this assumption is violated, but the conditional distribution of indicator given age is preserved, we find that an alternative model which attempts to capture the biological process of development of an individual has some attractive features, which may make it suitable for further study.

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“…This fact is demonstrated graphically in Figure 4 of Aykroyd et al (1997); see also Davison (2003), pp. 203-206 for an excellent discussion of the effect of different types of censoring.…”

Section: Statistical Assumptions In Age-at-death Estimationmentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Both Indicators Presentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death: statistical assumptions and applications

Samworth¹,

Gowland²

2006

Intl J of Osteoarchaeology

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“…In recent years Bayesian approaches have improved significantly, due to increased computer power which made more efective the calculation of posterior distributions. A very detailed description of these and other methods can be found in several papers [15][16][17][18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure

Martins¹,

Oliveira²,

Schmitt³

2012

Forensic Science International

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We discuss here the estimation of age at death from two indicators (pubic symphysis and the sacro-pelvic surface of the ilium) based on four different osteological series from Portugal, GreatBritain, South Africa or USA (European origin). These samples and the scoring system of the two indicators were used by Schmitt et al. (2002), applying the methodology proposed by Lucy et al. (1996). In the present work, the same data was processed using a modification of the empirical method proposed by Lucy et al. (2002). The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures and Jackknife methodology. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point and interval estimates may be made. This statistical approach reduces the bias of the estimates to less than 70% of what was obtained by the initial method. This reduction going up to 52% if knowledge of sex of the individual is available, and produces an age for all the individuals that improves age at death assessment. Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure AbstractWe discuss here the estimation of age at death from two indicators (pubic symphysis and the sacro-pelvic surface of the ilium) based on four different osteological series from Portugal, Great-Britain, South Africa or USA (European origin). These samples and the scoring system of the two indicators were used by Schmitt et al. (2002), applying the methodology proposed by Lucy et al. (1996). In the present work, the same data was processed using a modification of the empirical method proposed by Lucy et al. (2002). The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures and Jackknife methodology. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point and interval estimates may be made. This statistical approach reduces the bias of the estimates to less than 70% of what was obtained by the initial method. This reduction going up to 52% if knowledge of sex of the individual is available, and produces an age for all the individuals that improves age at death assessment.

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Stature estimation and calibration: Bayesian and maximum likelihood perspectives in physical anthropology

Konigsberg¹,

Hens²,

Jantz³

et al. 1998

Am. J. Phys. Anthropol.

121

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Technical note: Regression analysis in adult age estimation

Cited by 133 publications

References 11 publications

Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death: statistical assumptions and applications

Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death: statistical assumptions and applications

Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure

Stature estimation and calibration: Bayesian and maximum likelihood perspectives in physical anthropology

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