Tackling the drought in Syria

Solh, Mahmoud

doi:10.1038/nmiddleeast.2010.206

Cited by 18 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…Estimates of the number of people internally displaced by the drought are as high as 1.5 million (3,4,13). Most migrated to the peripheries of Syria's cities, already burdened by strong population growth (∼2.5% per year) and the influx of an estimated 1.2-1.5 million Iraqi refugees between 2003 and 2007, many of whom arrived toward the tail end of this time frame at the beginning of the drought and remained in Syria (23).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The drought exacerbated existing water and agricultural insecurity and caused massive agricultural failures and livestock mortality. The most significant consequence was the migration of as many as 1.5 million people from rural farming areas to the peripheries of urban centers (3,4). Characterizing risk as the product of vulnerability and hazard severity, we first analyze Syria's vulnerability to drought and the social impacts of the recent drought leading to the onset of the Syrian civil war.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Farmers depend strongly on year-to-year rainfall, as two thirds of the cultivated land in Syria is rain fed, but the remainder relies upon irrigation and groundwater (11). For those farms without access to irrigation canals linked to river tributaries, pumped groundwater supplies over half (60%) of all water used for irrigation purposes, and this groundwater has become increasingly limited as extraction has been greatly overexploited (4). The government attempted to stem the rate of groundwater depletion by enacting a law in 2005 requiring a license to dig wells, but the legislation was not enforced (6).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

Kelley

Mohtadi

Cane

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

1,016

550

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Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system. , where agriculture and animal herding began some 12,000 years ago (1), experienced the worst 3-year drought in the instrumental record (2). The drought exacerbated existing water and agricultural insecurity and caused massive agricultural failures and livestock mortality. The most significant consequence was the migration of as many as 1.5 million people from rural farming areas to the peripheries of urban centers (3, 4). Characterizing risk as the product of vulnerability and hazard severity, we first analyze Syria's vulnerability to drought and the social impacts of the recent drought leading to the onset of the Syrian civil war. We then use observations and climate models to assess how unusual the drought was within the observed record and the reasons it was so severe. We also show that climate models simulate a long-term drying trend for the region as a consequence of human-induced climate change. If correct, this has increased the severity and frequency of occurrence of extreme multiyear droughts such as the recent one. We also present evidence that the circulation anomalies associated with the recent drought are consistent with model projections of human-induced climate change and aridification in the region and are less consistent with patterns of natural variability.

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Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

Kelley

Mohtadi

Cane

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

1,016

550

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“…There was a pronounced reduction in pasture areas suitable for grazing cattle and sheep, contributing to widespread livestock mortality [Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands, 2011; Erian, 2011;Fadhil, 2011;Kelley et al, 2015]. In response to the agricultural Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1002/2015JD023855 failures and loss of livelihoods and basic food support, roughly 1.5 million Syrians migrated from rural lands to the outskirts of major cities [Integrated Regional Information Networks, 2009a, 2009bMassoud, 2010;Solh, 2010;Worth, 2010;Sowers et al, 2011;Gleick, 2014;Kelley et al, 2015].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regime shift in Arabian dust activity, triggered by persistent Fertile Crescent drought

2015

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The Arabian Peninsula has experienced pronounced interannual to decadal variability in dust activity, including an abrupt regime shift around 2006 from an inactive dust period during 1998-2005 to an active period during [2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013]. Corresponding in time to the onset of this regime shift, the climate state transitioned into a combined La Niña and negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which incited a hiatus in global warming in the 2000s. Superimposed upon a long-term regional drying trend, synergistic interactions between these teleconnection modes triggered the establishment of a devastating and prolonged drought, which engulfed the Fertile Crescent, namely, Iraq and Syria, and led to crop failure and civil unrest. Dried soils and diminished vegetation cover in the Fertile Crescent, as evident through remotely sensed enhanced vegetation indices, supported greater dust generation and transport to the Arabian Peninsula in 2007-2013, as identified both in increased dust days observed at weather stations and enhanced remotely sensed aerosol optical depth. According to backward trajectory analysis of dust days on the Arabian Peninsula, increased dust lifting and atmospheric dust concentration in the Fertile Crescent during this recent, prolonged drought episode supported a greater frequency of dust events across the peninsula with associated northerly trajectories and led to the dust regime shift. These findings are particularly concerning, considering projections of warming and drying for the eastern Mediterranean region and potential collapse of the Fertile Crescent during this century.

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“…Drought affects livestock along with crop supplies, of course. Recently (AD 2006(AD -2009, herders in eastern Syria were reported to have lost around 80% of their livestock due to drought (Erian et al 2010;Sohl 2010). Moreover, pest outbreaks in mid-latitude agro-ecosystems are often associated with warm, dry weather, and many insects are migratory (Porter et al 1991).…”

Section: S4mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Interaction of Climate Change and Agency in the Collapse of Civilizations ca. 2300–2000 BC

Wiener¹

2014

TRR

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Human history has been marked by major episodes of climate change and human response, sometimes accompanied by independent innovations. In the Bronze Age, the sequencing of causes and reactions is dependent in part on dendrochronology and radiocarbon dating. This paper explores the interaction of a major, prolonged desiccation event between ca. 2300 and 2000 BC and human agency including migrations, the displacement of trading networks, warfare, the appearance of weapons made of bronze, and the first appearance of sailing vessels in the Mediterranean.

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Tackling the drought in Syria

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

Regime shift in Arabian dust activity, triggered by persistent Fertile Crescent drought

The Interaction of Climate Change and Agency in the Collapse of Civilizations ca. 2300–2000 BC

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