Systems dynamics model for decision support in risk assessment in software projects

Abstract

Project management is widely studied and has several tools that aid in the efficiency and effectiveness of software production. However, in project management, numerous risk factors are involved in the development of software. These risk factors interact in a dynamic and non-linear way, hindering decisionmaking. The objective of this paper is to present a model of systems dynamics, which is a descriptive technique used for modeling and simulating systems, involving risk factors that strongly influence the development of software. The model generated is a tool that aims to assist project managers in their decision-making. The relationships between variables were extracted from actual or empirical experiments available in the literature, thus bringing the model results closer to the real world. The model enables reproducing scenarios in which real-world tests would be costly or dangerous to be carried out, allowing the impacts of risks in software development process to be analyzed.

Project management and system dynamics modelling: Time to connect with innovation and sustainability

“…The results show that several studies have explored the dynamic of PM through SD models in different fields. These studies have been used for different purposes, as for instance, litigation (Cooper, 1980; Nasirzadeh et al, 2019; Williams et al, 2003), decision‐making process (Lopes et al, 2015; Sadabadi & Kama, 2014), development of policies (Lee et al, 2007; Mashayekhi, 2000; Ogano & Pretorius, 2017) and analysis of human resources in project delivery (Garcia‐Alvarez et al, 2016). In fact, the SD models consider relevant variables associated with the sustainability and innovation (Pargar & Kujala, 2021; Zhou & Liu, 2015), although studies of both have been developed separately.…”

“…Abdel-Hamid and Madnick (1987) and the constructive cost model (COCOMO) (Boehm, 1981) are the most widely known software models for PM. The COCOMO model (or COCOMO 81) was further supported by Madachy (1996) to simulate the effect of an inspectionbased software life cycle process, in line with tasks, errors and effects (Farshchi et al, 2012;Lee & Miller, 2004), technical issues (Rus et al, 1999) and risk (Lopes et al, 2015). This COCOMO model was first published in the book "Software Engineering Economics" by Boehm (1981).…”

“…There is a need to undertake an extensive review of SD modelling connected with PM. Moreover, it is asserted that the SD simulation technique has an important contribution to long‐range and systemic PM decision‐making (Chronéer & Backlund, 2015; Lopes et al, 2015; Sadabadi & Kama, 2014). Hence, a four‐stage research process methodology based on Tranfield et al (2003) is outlined and guides this descriptive and exploratory research to define variables and develop, through a systemic approach, a causal loop diagram (CLD) that integrates PM with innovation and sustainability systemically.…”

Uma análise sistêmica do extracusto em empresas baseadas na venda de projetos

“…Segundo Sterman (1992), para se entender de forma efetiva o sistema dinâmico do projeto, se faz necessária a aplicação de modelos estruturados que demonstrem as múltiplas relações e impactos que mudanças podem acarretar. Lopes et al (2015) ressaltam que os fatores de risco interagem de forma dinâmica e não linear, dificultando as tomadas de decisões.…”