-The objective of this study was to select models of lactation curves with a better adjustment to the observed data in models of milk production simulation systems. A data base on 6,459 recordings of daily milk production was used. These data were obtained from monthly and fortnightly controls of milk between 2004 and 2007, from 472 lactations of animals from ten different milking cow herd farms. Based on rolling averages of milk production (MP-L/day) per cow, the ten herd farms were divided into low (L < 15), medium (15 20). Data were also divided according to the lactation numbers in first, second, third or greater. Eight lactation curve models commonly used in literature were compared. The models were individually adjusted for each lactation. The goodness of fit used for comparison of those models was the coefficient of determination, mean square error, mean square prediction error and the Bayesian information criterion. The values for the goodness of fit obtained in each model were compared by using 95% probability confidence interval. Wilmink (1987) model showed a better adjustment for cows of the first lactation numbers, whereas the Wood (1967) model showed a better adjustment for cows of the third or greater lactations numbers for the low milk production groups. Wood model showed a better adjustment for all the lactation numbers for the medium milk production group. Dijkstra (1997) model showed a better adjustment for all lactation numbers for the high milk production group. Despite of being more recent, the model by Pollott (2000), mechanist based and with a higher number of parameters, showed a good convergence for the used data.
The objective of the study was to compare through simulation Holstein and Jersey breed herds, considering the farm size, zootechnical and economic indexes and profitability of the activity, by using different systems of bonus payment for milk price based in percentage of fat and protein in the milk. The comparisons were made, initially, disregarding the bonus payment for milk price based on the increase in the fat and protein percentage in milk. After that, the profitability of the activity was compared considering bonus payment for milk price of the Jersey breed herd, for each unit increment in fat and protein percentage in milk above those obtained with the Holstein breed herd. Finally, the profitability of the activity was compared by using the bonus payment for milk price based on quality of that used by company A systems. When there was no bonus payment for milk price based in the percentage of fat and protein in the milk, the profit obtained with the Holstein breed was higher because of the lower production costs. In order to make the activity more profitable with the Jersey breed, a bonus payment of 5% for milk price would be needed for each percentage unit of fat above the percentage of that obtained with the Holstein breed, or a bonus payment of 10% in the milk price for each percentage unit of protein above the percentage obtained with the Holstein breed. By using the bonus payment system proposed by Gimenes and Ponchio, the annual profit with the Jersey breed was higher than the profit obtained with the Holstein breed. However, with the application of the bonus payment system used by company A, the Holstein breed became more profitable than the Jersey breed.
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