Background
The Third International Consensus Definitions Task Force (SEP-3) proposed revised criteria defining sepsis and septic shock. We sought to: 1) evaluate the performance of the SEP-3 definitions for prediction of in-hospital mortality in an Emergency Department (ED) population, and 2) compare the performance of the SEP-3 definitions to the previous definitions.
Methods
Secondary analysis of three prospectively collected, observational cohorts of infected ED subjects ≥18 years old. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Based on the SEP-3 definitions, we calculated test characteristics of sepsis (qSOFA score ≥2) and septic shock (vasopressor dependence plus lactate >2.0 mmol/L) for mortality and compared them to the original 1992 consensus definitions.
Results
We identified 7,754 ED patients with suspected infection overall; 117 had no documented mental status evaluation, leaving 7,637 patients included in the analysis. The mortality rate for the overall population was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.9 – 4.9%). The mortality rate for patients with qSOFA ≥2 was 14.2% (12.2 – 16.2%), with a sensitivity of 52% (46 – 57%) and specificity of 86% (85 – 87%) to predict mortality. The original SIRS-based 1992 consensus sepsis definition had a 6.8% (6.0 – 7.7%) mortality rate, sensitivity of 83% (79 – 87%) and specificity of 50% (49 – 51%). The SEP-3 septic shock mortality was 23% (16 – 30%), with a sensitivity of 12%(11 –13%) and specificity of 98.4% (98.1 – 98.7%). The original 1992 septic shock definition had a 22% (17 – 27%) mortality rate, sensitivity of 23% (18 – 28%), and specificity of 96.6% (96.2 – 97.0%).
Conclusion
Both the new SEP-3 and original sepsis definitions stratify ED patients at risk for mortality, albeit with differing performances. In terms of mortality prediction, the SEP-3 definitions had improved specificity, but at the cost of sensitivity. Use of either approach requires a clearly intended target – more sensitivity versus specificity.