Systematic Evaluation of Uncertainty in Material Flow Analysis

Laner, David; Rechberger, Helmut; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

doi:10.1111/jiec.12143

Cited by 144 publications

(123 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…In aggregating the data, we assumed that all parameters were normally distributed and independent of variables [76]. We also applied Gauss's law of error propagation (FAU physics, n.d.) [77].…”

Section: Out3 Leaching Out4amentioning

confidence: 99%

Recycling Improves Soil Fertility Management in Smallholdings in Tanzania

Krause

Rotter

2018

Agriculture

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Abstract:Residues from bioenergy and ecological sanitation (EcoSan) can be utilized to sustain soil fertility and productivity. With regard to certain cooking and sanitation technologies used in smallholder households (hh), we systematically analyzed how utilization of the respective potentials to recover residues for farming affects (i) soil nutrient balances, (ii) the potential for subsistence production of composts, and (iii) environmental emissions. On the example of an intercropping farming system in Karagwe, Tanzania, we studied specific farming practices including (1) current practices of using standard compost only; (2) a combination of using biogas slurry, urine, and standard compost; (3) a combination of using so-called "CaSa-compost" (containing biochar and sanitized human excreta, Project "Carbonization and Sanitation"), urine, and standard compost. The system analysis combines a soil nutrient balance (SNB) with material flow analysis (MFA). Currently, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are depleted by −54 ± 3 and −8 ± 1 kg·ha −1 ·year −1 , respectively. Our analysis shows, however, a clear potential to reduce depletion rates of N, and to reverse the SNB of P, to bring about a positive outcome. Composts and biogas slurry supply sufficient P to crops, while urine effectively supplements N. By using resources recovered from cooking and sanitation, sufficient compost for subsistence farming may be produced. Human excreta contribute especially to total N and total P in CaSa-compost, whilst biochar recovered from cooking with microgasifier stoves adds to total carbon (C) and total P. We conclude that the combined recycling of household residues from cooking and from sanitation, and CaSa-compost in particular, is especially suitable for sustainable soil management, as it mitigates existing P-deficiency and soil acidity, and also restores soil organic matter.

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Section: Out3 Leaching Out4amentioning

confidence: 99%

Recycling Improves Soil Fertility Management in Smallholdings in Tanzania

Krause

Rotter

2018

Agriculture

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“…Few authors have provided sensitivity analyses [30,85,108] , multi-method approaches [95] or Monte-Carlo simulations [26,86]. Clearly, uncertainty is a topic of growing importance for MFA research and applications of the socioeconomic metabolism concept in general [31,32,50,51,109].…”

Section: Recent Progress In Quantifying Socioeconomic Materials Stocksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They typically allow characterizing stocks in terms of the resource requirements involved in building, renewing and using them, as well as the related emissions [29,31,91]. Quantification of uncertainty remains underdeveloped in EW-MEFA [42,50,51], and even more so in regard to material stocks. Few authors have provided sensitivity analyses [30,85,108], multi-method approaches [95] or Monte-Carlo simulations [26,86].…”

Section: Recent Progress In Quantifying Socioeconomic Materials Stocksmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Material Stock–Flow–Service Nexus: A New Approach for Tackling the Decoupling Conundrum

et al. 2017

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Fundamental changes in the societal use of biophysical resources are required for a sustainability transformation. Current socioeconomic metabolism research traces flows of energy, materials or substances to capture resource use: input of raw materials or energy, their fate in production and consumption, and the discharge of wastes and emissions. This approach has yielded important insights into eco-efficiency and long-term drivers of resource use. But socio-metabolic research has not yet fully incorporated material stocks or their services, hence not completely exploiting the analytic power of the metabolism concept. This commentary argues for a material stock-flow-service nexus approach focused on the analysis of interrelations between material and energy flows, socioeconomic material stocks ("in-use stocks of materials") and the services provided by specific stock/flow combinations. Analyzing the interrelations between stocks, flows and services will allow researchers to develop highly innovative indicators of eco-efficiency and open new research directions that will help to better understand biophysical foundations of transformations towards sustainability.

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“…We then convert the inflows, outflows, and stocks from vehicle units to the masses of materials contained in them. Uncertainties and sensitivity analyses are examined using Monte Carlo simulations, as in similar dynamic flow-stock models [38,40,41].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States

et al. 2018

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Abstract:We explore the long-term demand and supply potentials of rare earth elements in alternative energy vehicles (AEVs) in the United States until 2050. Using a stock-flow model, we compare a baseline scenario with scenarios that incorporate an exemplary technological innovation: a novel aluminum-cerium-magnesium alloy. We find that the introduction of the novel alloy demonstrates that even low penetration rates can exceed domestic cerium production capacity, illustrating possible consequences of technological innovations to material supply and demand. End-of-life vehicles can, however, overtake domestic mining as a source of materials, calling for proper technologies and policies to utilize this emerging source. The long-term importing of critical materials in manufactured and semi-manufactured products shifts the location of material stocks and hence future secondary supply of high-value materials, culminating in a double benefit to the importing country. This modeling approach is adaptable to the study of varied scenarios and materials, linking technologies with supply and demand dynamics in order to understand their potential economic and environmental consequences.

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Systematic Evaluation of Uncertainty in Material Flow Analysis

Cited by 144 publications

References 51 publications

Recycling Improves Soil Fertility Management in Smallholdings in Tanzania

Recycling Improves Soil Fertility Management in Smallholdings in Tanzania

The Material Stock–Flow–Service Nexus: A New Approach for Tackling the Decoupling Conundrum

Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States

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