Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States

Abstract

Abstract:We explore the long-term demand and supply potentials of rare earth elements in alternative energy vehicles (AEVs) in the United States until 2050. Using a stock-flow model, we compare a baseline scenario with scenarios that incorporate an exemplary technological innovation: a novel aluminum-cerium-magnesium alloy. We find that the introduction of the novel alloy demonstrates that even low penetration rates can exceed domestic cerium production capacity, illustrating possible consequences of technological innovations to material supply and demand. End-of-life vehicles can, however, overtake domestic mining as a source of materials, calling for proper technologies and policies to utilize this emerging source. The long-term importing of critical materials in manufactured and semi-manufactured products shifts the location of material stocks and hence future secondary supply of high-value materials, culminating in a double benefit to the importing country. This modeling approach is adaptable to the study of varied scenarios and materials, linking technologies with supply and demand dynamics in order to understand their potential economic and environmental consequences.

Analysis of Potential for Critical Metal Resource Constraints in the International Energy Agency’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Energy Scenarios

“…Based on the concerns described above, a growing number of studies have examined the potential constraints on metal resources related to energy technology in recent years. Most commonly these have been related to thin film type solar panels [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14], permanent magnets used in wind power generation and next-generation vehicles [15][16][17][18][19][20][21] and secondary batteries or fuel cells for next-generation vehicles [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. However, most of these studies focus on specific technologies or metals and few studies have comprehensively analyzed the possibility of resource constraints in the introduction process of low carbon energy technology for multiple technologies and metals [36,37].…”

YSTAFDB, a unified database of material stocks and flows for sustainability science

“…Such systems may be anthropogenic or natural, describe a supply chain of a company, a food web comprising endangered marine species, or environmental emissions of one or more energy generation technologies. STAF data may describe full or partial (life) cycle(s) of one or more reference material(s) in these systems, e.g., iron (Fe) in a study involving static material flow analysis (MFA) 1 ; transport-related goods and elements in a study involving dynamic MFA 2 ; and battery products and components in a study involving life cycle assessment (LCA) 3 . Analyses of material efficiency 4 , criticality (i.e., the risk of material unavailability) 5 , and recycling 6 may analyze these data directly to describe material systems; alternatively, STAF data may be applied to characterize impacts and assess environmental damage (or benefit) of product systems 7,8 .…”

Where Do Our Resources Go? Indium, Neodymium, and Gold Flows Connected to the Use of Electronic Equipment in Switzerland

“…Despite decreasing neodymium flows, most of the existing neodymium stock could be "mined" within the next 30 years if suitable recovery processes are available. Although the demand for neodymium in EE will decrease, overall demand for it is likely to increase due to emerging technologies such as electric vehicles (e.g., [73][74][75]). neodymium stock could be "mined" within the next 30 years if suitable recovery processes are available.…”