System dynamics for market forecasting and structural analysis

Lyneis, James M.

doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-1727(200021)16:1<3::aid-sdr183>3.0.co;2-5

Cited by 158 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 5 publications

(4 reference statements)

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“…Though BNs can also be derived "purely" from mathematical analysis (e.g., Wong and Guo 2008), the application of BNs on hand incorporates expert knowledge into data-based networks and applies quantitative as well as qualitative evaluation processes. Other hybrid approaches successfully introduced to the environmental scanning domain include system dynamics (Lyneis 2000) and agentbased systems (Liu 2000), both of which are computational simulation methods for dynamic problems. System dynamics models problems as stocks and flows with feedback loops that are simulated via differential equations over time (Lane 2000), while agent-based systems simulate interrelations of autonomous agents with intelligent, rule-based behavior (Shirazi and Soroor 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Environmental Scanning Systems Using Bayesian Networks

Welter¹,

Mayer

Quick

2013

Bus Res

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Environmental Scanning Systems Using Bayesian Networks

Welter¹,

Mayer

Quick

2013

Bus Res

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“…Sterman (2000)]. There has been a rather small number of animal agriculture models based on the SD approach since the foundation of the SD in the late 1950s compared to other fields of science such as business (Lyneis, 2000;Sterman, 2000) and environment (Anand et al, 2006;Fiddaman, 2007;Ford, 1999).…”

Section: Agribusiness Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using System Dynamics modelling approach to develop management tools for animal production with emphasis on small ruminants

Tedeschi

Nicholson

Rich

2011

Small Ruminant Research

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Small ruminants are important assets in several regions of the world. They account for more than half of the domesticated ruminants. Despite the growth in goat production in the world (more than 2% per ye. ar), research related to goat production is less than desired. One underused but potentially valuable approach for research on small ruminants is sim ulation modelling. Models of the components of small ruminant systems can enhance the financial returns and reduce negative environmental impacts. These models can be used to assess many dimensions of small ruminant production, from rumen dynamics to economic policies designed to support small ruminant production. Understanding the nutrition, pro duction, and economic policy feedback signals and planning ahead is crucial to build a robust and integrated production activity that can be managed under different production scenarios. System Dynamics (SD) is a computer-aided modelling methodology that can be used to perform policy analysis and decision support system (DSS) applied to dynamic problems arising in complex social, managerial, economic. or ecological dynamic systems characterized by interdependence, mutual interaction, information feedback. and circular causality. SD can be used as a modelling tool to aggregate knowledge to solve d ifferent types of problems that have a limited scope to a specific location or have broad trends of applications across locations and areas of science. Important issues of broad application include the bearings ofanimal production in the climate change and the impacts of climate change in animal production, alternative production scenarios ofanimal and crop integra tion, associations between animal production and business (economics, marketing). The trend of increasing small ruminants in tropical and subtropical regions and an increasing pressure on tropical and subtropical livestock systems to produce food, to feed livestock. and to produce energy crops warrants the development ofDSS to address issues such as what is the "real" benefits of livestock. the negative impacts livestock can have on greenhouse-gas emissions and the environment, and the effects ofclimate change on livestock systems.

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“…The use of system dynamics approach in this study, is based on the conviction that this methodology has several advantages compared with conventional forecasting methods (Lyneis, 2000). The advantages of this approach can be described as follows; (1) provides a reliable estimate of the statistical model; (2) provides a way to understand the causes of behavior, detects the early changes in the structure and determines the factors that predict the behavior of significant and sensitive; and (3) allows determination of plausible scenarios as input for decisions and policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Modeling on Integrated Supply Chain Management of Potato Agribusiness

Hakim¹,

Perdana²

2017

MIMBAR, Jurnal Sosial dan Pembangunan

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Abstract. The objectives of this study is to design a model of integrated supply chain management of potato agribusiness in an effort to increase revenue and bargaining position of farmers in Aceh Province. The method applied to achieve these objectives was the methodology of system dynamics. Formulation of the models was conducted by using Vensim DSS Software, followed by simulation. The result of this study showed the role of five major scenarios which were important to actualize the integrated supply chain management of potato agribusiness in Aceh Province, those were: scenario 1, increasing the productive land area, resulting in the increasing of production volume; scenario 2, usin g the certified potato seed named "umbi G2", generating the higher level of production; scenario 3, providing the certified potato seed based on the needs, showing that the quantity of production increased; scenario 4, shortening the payment receivables interval of farmers and cooperatives, which showing the increasing of cash amount; scenario 5, doing certification to the potato from synergistic partnerships farmers, showing the increasing of acceptance, profitability, R/C, and cash.

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System dynamics for market forecasting and structural analysis

Cited by 158 publications

References 5 publications

Improving Environmental Scanning Systems Using Bayesian Networks

Improving Environmental Scanning Systems Using Bayesian Networks

Using System Dynamics modelling approach to develop management tools for animal production with emphasis on small ruminants

System Dynamics Modeling on Integrated Supply Chain Management of Potato Agribusiness

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