System Dynamics Approach to TALC Modeling

Abstract

The system dynamics applied in this research on modeling a tourist destination (area) life cycle (TALC) contributes to understanding its behavior and the way that information feedback governs the use of feedback loops, delays and stocks and flows. On this basis, a system dynamic three-staged TALC model is conceptualized, with the number of visitors V as an indicator of the carrying capacities’ dynamics and the flow function V(t) to determine the TALC stages. In the first supply-dominance stage, the model indicated that arrivals are growing until the point of inflexion. After this point, arrivals continue growing (but with diminishing growth rates), indicating the beginning of the demand-dominance stage, ending up with the saturation point, i.e., the maximum number of visitors. The simulated TALC system dynamics model was then applied to five EU destinations (Living Labs) to explain their development along the observed period (2007–2019). The analysis revealed that all observed Living Labs reached the second lifecycle stage, with one entered as early as in 2015 and another in 2018. Lifecycle stage durations may significantly differ across the destinations, as do the policies used either to prevent stagnation or to restructure the offer to become more sustainable and resilient.

Modelling of Carrying Capacity at Komodo National Park: System Dynamics Approach (Case Study: Komodo Island and Padar Island, East Nusa Tenggara Province)

“…This study uses a system dynamics approach to examine the relationship between the variables that constitute the carrying capacity model and its projections in the present and future. The system dynamics method has been widely used for various types of research for environmental management (Hassanzadeh et al 2012), land and water resource planning (Ford 1996;Zarghami and Akbariyeh 2012), ecological modeling (Li et al 2012), sustainability ecology and economy in urban areas (Zhan et al 2012), island-based tourism development strategies by considering socio-economic impacts (Aliani et al 2018), behavioral analysis of tourism destinations related to the number of visitors (Hell and Petrić 2021), analysis about the contribution of ecotourism to conservation and the presence of animals (Lola et al 2017) and land use change (Firmansyah et al 2019).…”

Modelling Dynamics of the Talc With System Dynamics Methodology and Dpsir Framework

“…Source: (Hell and Petrić, 2021) As already explained, the lifecycle model represents only a statistical approximation. However, system dynamics methodology can be used for analysing structure of lifecycle patterns.…”

Flood Vulnerability and Resiliency in Coastal Areas Based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Dynamic

“…Studies are conducted with dynamic, resilience-centered simulation models that provide a holistic representation of system components, various multi-hazard scenarios [36], SDMs work as managers who can implement appropriate strategies and policies in a timely manner to improve sustainability, being able to know what specific policies to use to add, adjust, or subtract [37]. Site-based assessments are effective for evaluating community performance over time and for decision makers, integrating resilience thinking into planning [38], but so far it is unclear the regulatory role used by stakeholders [39].…”