Synergistic effects of climate and land cover: grassland birds are more vulnerable to climate change

Jarzyna, Marta A.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Finley, Andrew O.; Porter, William F.

doi:10.1007/s10980-016-0399-1

Cited by 40 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Within Iberia the same pattern holds true: future bird priority areas display a small level of overlay with existing conservation networks owing to projected shifts in the distributions of Iberian birds as a result of climatic, land-use, vegetation and fire regimes changes (Triviño et al 2011;Araújo et al 2012;Regos et al 2016). When examining patterns for species with specific habitat requirements, we found that forest bird species are expected to be less vulnerable to climate change because models project increases in forest cover, hence there will be more opportunities for colonisation (Araújo et al 2008) and because forests could serve as a possible buffer to the impacts of climate change (Jarzyna et al 2016). Species favouring agricultural lands were expected to be able to track climatic changes, but land-use projections indicate a decrease of agricultural area in the future.…”

Section: Does the Effectiveness Of Iberian Conservation Network Decrmentioning

confidence: 78%

Planning for the future: identifying conservation priority areas for Iberian birds under climate change

et al. 2018

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Context Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity.Objectives We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes.Methods We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and nonthreatened priority areas.Results 19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses. ConclusionsWe identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.

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Section: Does the Effectiveness Of Iberian Conservation Network Decrmentioning

confidence: 78%

Planning for the future: identifying conservation priority areas for Iberian birds under climate change

et al. 2018

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“…; Jarzyna et al. ). Increasing temperatures can lead to higher probabilities of localized extinctions for grassland birds, but this effect is strongest in landscapes with low amounts of grassland habitat (Jarzyna et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Despite evidence that temperature and precipitation influence breeding success of birds, habitat loss and fragmentation can modify these relationships. At regional scales, grassland bird abundance and distribution are affected by the interaction of habitat availability and climate (Reino et al 2013;Jarzyna et al 2016). Increasing temperatures can lead to higher probabilities of localized extinctions for grassland birds, but this effect is strongest in landscapes with low amounts of grassland habitat (Jarzyna et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At regional scales, grassland bird abundance and distribution are affected by the interaction of habitat availability and climate (Reino et al 2013;Jarzyna et al 2016). Increasing temperatures can lead to higher probabilities of localized extinctions for grassland birds, but this effect is strongest in landscapes with low amounts of grassland habitat (Jarzyna et al 2016). Similarly, bird communities occupying landscapes with more contiguous riparian habitat have less turnover during extreme drought, a potential result of the moderating effect of riparian vegetation (Nimmo et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Zuckerberg

Ribic

McCauley

2018

Conservation Biology

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Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch-size-induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland-bird demography and could be an effective component of climate-change adaptation.

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“…The general pattern of declines in grassland birds seems to continue despite much of the conversion of native grasslands to agriculture having been completed by the 1940s, particularly in the United States (Waisanen and Bliss 2002). Continued loss of native grasslands, however, is well documented on the Canadian prairies (Watmough and Schmoll 2007) and the compounding effects of habitat loss, fragmentation, declining patch size, industrial disturbance, and the potential impacts of climate change still threaten grassland species through direct and indirect pathways (Davis 2004, Ludlow et al 2015, Jarzyna et al 2016. Thus, there remains a need to identify important habitats for grassland birds in Canada.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution of priority grassland bird habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada

Fedy¹,

Devries²,

Howerter³

et al. 2018

ACE

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ABSTRACT. Grassland ecosystems and the species that rely on them are one of the most urgent habitat conservation concerns in North America. Fundamental to any landscape conservation efforts is the identification of priority habitats to help target management efforts. Many avian species associated with prairie ecosystems have experienced population declines along with continued loss of prairie habitats. Additionally, given the long history of research in avian systems and the close grassland associations of some species, birds are excellent candidate taxa for the identification of priority habitats and can provide an informed starting point for multispecies assessments. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (1997Survey ( -2014 to develop species distribution models for 15 grassland bird species across the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada. Model performance varied widely across species. Ten species demonstrated good model performance (average Boyce Index > 0.64 across 5-fold cross validation). We used these 10 species to assess the influence of habitat covariates on the relative probability of occurrence, to compare the spatial scales of selection, and to generate multispecies habitat priority maps. Of the nine habitat covariates considered, most species predictably demonstrated positive associations with grassland habitats and avoidance of areas of high tree and shrub cover. Two covariates representing wetland abundance were also frequently included in the top models. The area covered by wetlands (w.area) was present in the top model for 5 of 10 species with a consistently estimated negative coefficient. However, a covariate, which represented the number of wetland basins (w.basins), was present in the top model for 8 of 10 species with an estimated positive coefficient for all but 1 species, representing a preference for more heterogeneous wetland landscapes. The larger spatial scales we considered tended to have greater explanatory power than smaller spatial scales and were thus more prevalent in the top models. The multispecies priority habitat maps that we produced can be used for future assessments of potential habitat management actions. Our work provides a critical foundation for the incorporation of grassland bird conservation goals into on-going landscape-planning initiatives in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada. Répartition de milieux prioritaires pour la conservation d'oiseaux de prairie dans la région des cuvettes des Prairies au CanadaRÉSUMÉ. Les écosystèmes de prairie et les espèces qui en dépendent représentent une des préoccupations de conservation d'habitat les plus importantes en Amérique du Nord. Au moment d'établir les activités d'aménagement, la détermination des milieux prioritaires est fondamentale à tout effort de conservation de paysages. De nombreuses espèces aviaires associées aux écosystèmes de prairie ont subi des baisses de population et des pertes continuelles d'habitat. De plus, étant donné la longue tradition de recherche en ornithologie et l'association étr...

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Synergistic effects of climate and land cover: grassland birds are more vulnerable to climate change

Cited by 40 publications

References 57 publications

Planning for the future: identifying conservation priority areas for Iberian birds under climate change

Planning for the future: identifying conservation priority areas for Iberian birds under climate change

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Distribution of priority grassland bird habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada

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