Synchronization of the Polish and European Business Cycles

Chionis, Dionysios; Leon, Costas

doi:10.1016/j.jeca.2009.01.009

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…However, these characteristics of the Polish economy have their good points since it also means that the level of resistance is higher and that Poland has a better ability to cushion external systemic shocks. Chionis -Leon (2009) argued that the Polish cycles significantly lag behind the European cycles and they based their contention on the VAR methodology results, which showed that the shocks from the European markets were absorbed within six to ten quarters. Somewhat similar findings can be seen on our CWT plot.…”

Section: The Wavelet Coherence Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…He found that the business cycles synchronisation is quite high in the recession regime, but lower in the normal and high growth regimes, with the exception of Hungary and Poland. Chionis -Leon (2009) examined the synchronisation between the European and the Polish business cycles via VAR methodology. Their findings confirmed that while business cycles are dominated by the same frequency, there is a time lag between these two cycles.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Business cycles synchronisation between the EU-15 and selected Eastern European Countries – The wavelet coherence approach

2017

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This paper strives to investigate the level of business cycles synchronisation between 8 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) and the EU-15. We use wavelet coherence and phase difference methodology as a very suitable tool that observes simultaneously the strength of business cycles’ co-movement in the aspect of time as well as in the aspect of frequency. The results indicate that the business cycles of CEECs are generally synchronised with the EU-15 business cycles, whereas distinct differences existed before, during, and after the financial crisis (2008–2009) and during the European sovereign debt crisis (2010–2011). In other words, we demonstrate that very strong business cycles synchronisation occurred in almost all CEECs during crisis periods and at higher wavelet scales, while only moderate synchronisation is recorded in relatively tranquil periods at higher frequencies. The results suggest that smaller CEECs, but also larger countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, and to some extent Slovakia as well have a higher level of business cycles synchronisation with the EU-15, particularly in the crisis period at short-run as well as at long-run fluctuations. However, we do not find strong business cycles co-movement in cases of Poland and Latvia via HP and BP filters at higher frequencies during the crisis, which might indicate a higher resistance of these countries to external systemic shocks.

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Section: The Wavelet Coherence Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Business cycles synchronisation between the EU-15 and selected Eastern European Countries – The wavelet coherence approach

2017

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“…For the purpose of this article, spectral methods have also been used, but the assessment and verification of business cycles synchronization has been carried out on the example of Poland, OECD-Europe and UE-28. The approach presented is the closest to Skrzypczyński (2006) and Chionis and Leon (2009). However, the presented research in the further part of the article can be freely extended by further research and methodical threads.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…On the problems of synchronization of business cycles using spectral methods wrote Chionis and Leon (2009). They examined the synchronization of Polish and European economic cycles of GDP, finding the dominant one with the frequency of 0.045 cycles (equivalent to 5.5 years).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation and verification of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28

Szaruga

2018

European Journal of Service Management

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The article presents the problem of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and two grouping of states (OECD-Europe and EU-28). The aim of the article is to assess the level of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28. The main hypothesis was formulated: business cycles of consumer price index of energy in OECD-Europe or the EU-28 have a significant impact on the formation of business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland, which results from their strong synchronization. In the paper used spectral and cross-spectral methods, as well as the TRAMO/SEATS method and the Hodrick-Prescott filter for business cycles estimation. The research was conducted on the example of Poland, OECD-Europe and EU-28 on the basis of secondary data of consumer price index of energy from the OECD.Stats (2018) database. Monthly time series from January 1996 to December 2017 were used. Two dominant cycles were identified in all surveyed units (66-months and 33-months). As a result of the conducted research, coherence between 79-97% between business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland and EU-28 and 52-83% between those cycles in Poland and OECD-Europe was obtained. In both cases the amplitude of the business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland was lower than in those groups. Longer cycles (50/52-66) of country groups were overtake of similar business cycles in Poland, while for shorter cycles (33-50/52) there was a reverse relation. #0# Cite this article as: Szaruga, E. (2018). Evaluation and verification of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28.

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“…from Q1 1967 to Q1 2017, and data was recovered from OECD statistics. In order to separate the cyclical component from the trend in the growth rates, we use the Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP) of Hodrick and Prescott (1997), a technique that was usually applied for this type of problem in the international literature (Degiannakis, Duffy and Filis, 2014;Aslanidis, 2010;Chionis and Leon, 2009). Following the same papers, we set the smoothness parameter (λ) to be 1600.…”

Section: Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

How FTA and NAFTA treaties affect the business cycles synchronization between the U.S.: And Canada

Živkov¹,

Malešević²,

Malešević³

et al. 2018

Škola biznisa

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This paper strives to gauge whether the introduction of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) positively influenced business cycle synchronization between the U.S. and Canada. For computational purposes, we choose wavelet coherence and phase difference methodologies. Our results indicate that synchronization between cycles was realized much faster after the introduction of these treaties in '80s and '90s of the 20 th century. Also, results show that synchronization is achieved faster in crisis (after two quarters), while in tranquil periods it takes little bit longer (three quarters). Phase difference suggests that the U.S.'s business cycle is one that leading.

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Synchronization of the Polish and European Business Cycles

Cited by 4 publications

References 17 publications

Business cycles synchronisation between the EU-15 and selected Eastern European Countries – The wavelet coherence approach

Business cycles synchronisation between the EU-15 and selected Eastern European Countries – The wavelet coherence approach

Evaluation and verification of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28

How FTA and NAFTA treaties affect the business cycles synchronization between the U.S.: And Canada

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