Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Uexküll, Nina von

doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.10.003

Cited by 105 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Floods might have a more immediate effect than droughts and thus affect conflict in the short term (Raleigh and Kniveton 2012;von Uexkull 2014). However, longer SPI intervals do not necessarily capture short-term floods or droughts.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization

2017

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In recent years, the focus of quantitative climate-conflict research has shifted from studying civil wars to studying different types of conflicts, particularly non-state and communal conflicts, based on the argument that these local-level conflicts are a more likely consequence of climate variability than civil war. However, the findings from previous research do not paint a consistent picture of the relationship between climate and communal conflict. We posit that a research design treating the climate variable as randomized is a better and more convincing strategy for estimating the relationship between climate variability and communal conflict compared to the conventional control method to account for confounders. In this paper, we ask two questions: (1) what type of research design allows us to treat climate variability as randomized and (2) what can we say about the relationship between climate variability and communal violence using this new design? To answer these questions, we analyze six large subnational areas, at a monthly time scale, and calculate the standardized precipitation index for each area for each month. We find that both short, unusually dry intervals and long, unusually wet intervals increase the likelihood of a communal conflict event.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization

2017

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“…Recurrent shifts in temperatures and rainfall, including water-related conflicts, are well-known livelihood stresses in the Sahel, often acting in combination to alter agricultural production, food supplies and livelihood dynamics (Benjaminsen 2008;Couttenier and Soubeyran 2014;Uexkull 2014). Losses from climate and water conflict impacts represent an important vulnerability concern in our study context.…”

Section: Discussion Unpacking the Implications Of The Cwcvi-dei Assesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Membership in group-or village-level associations influences the way local people bond with one another, including their access to informal insurance and logistic supports, and capacity for collective actions (Baird and Gray 2014). This form of social capital is crucial for decreasing vulnerability to climate and conflict impacts (Uexkull 2014). In contrast to fishermen who were better off in terms of cooperation and access to information, and a few farmers who belonged to farming associations, pastoralists were more limited in their social/political networks.…”

Section: Discussion Unpacking the Implications Of The Cwcvi-dei Assesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

2016

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Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climatewater conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climateconflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the southeastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.

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“…Again, little suggests that civil conflicts are triggered by rainfall or drought [13•, 56, 58-61], with one study finding a conditional link in contexts expected to be less conflict-prone [60], denoted as mx in Table 1 Panel B. Regarding civil conflict incidence, one study found wetter years to run a higher risk [62], one found a quite unconditional link [63], and several others failed to find an unconditional link [13•, 58, 59, 64-66]. As reflected in panel B, four of these studies found more support in contexts deemed vulnerable [13•, 63-65] with three out of these using subnational analyses.…”

Section: Empirical Studies 2014-2017mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At most, some studies test whether there is a difference between the onset and incidence of civil conflict, but the latter measure constitutes a hybrid of onset and duration and therefore risks watering out effects that could affect one phenomenon but not the other. While firm conclusions are premature due to the low number of studies, the fact that studies that analyze incidence rather than onset find more support, and more importantly, the few studies that analyze the dynamics of civil conflicts [58,59,63] find support for more narrowly defined research questions, could indicate that what determines the onset of civil conflict is less affected by weather shocks than the dynamics of ongoing conflicts. Alternatively, the lack of a correlation for the outbreak of civil conflict should lead us to search for an alternative way of detecting systematic relationships.…”

Section: Analyzing Medium-run Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

Theisen

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of Review The aim of this review is to understand the state of the art of research related to climate change and collectively organized violence from a broad political science perspective. Recent Findings An increasing share of quantitative studies find a link between weather anomalies and violence for some forms of violence, but the directions are not always consistent and the mechanisms are not satisfactorily understood. Nonnaturalist scholars note important reservations. Summary Important improvements have been made during the last few years, but much remains to conclude that climate change will increase the risk of violence. An increased focus on the political consequences of adaptation and mitigation is needed.

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Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Cited by 105 publications

References 47 publications

Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization

Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

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