Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization

Nordkvelle, Jonas; Rustad, Siri Aas; Salmivalli, Monika

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1914-3

Cited by 38 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…We also do not seek to show meteorological drought was the only cause of migration or economic crisis. However, the plausible exogeneity of meteorological factors does allow us to identify their effect with much more certainty than other factors (Nordkvelle, Rustad, and Salmivalli 2017). We believe we move the discussion forward, as we can establish that climate led to at least some migration and then evaluate the role of in-migration in Syria's subsequent unrest. This link between migration and conflict is most uncertain.…”

Section: The Debate Over Drought and Conflict In Syriamentioning

confidence: 91%

Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset

Ash

Obradovich

2019

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Syria recently suffered a once in 500-year meteorological drought followed by one of the worst conflicts of the twenty-first century. We exploit subnational variation in drought impact to examine associations between climatic stress and Syria’s political unrest. Climatic stress may produce instability through both immediate hardship and, indirectly, internal migration. Consistent with the internal migration hypothesis, we find less severely drought-stricken Syrian regions more likely to experience protest. We employ nighttime lights as a proxy for population density to examine the association between climatic stress and internal displacement. We find climatic stress decreased nighttime light intensity during the drought period. Increases in nighttime lights from 2005 to 2010 are associated with added risk of protest in Sunni Arab areas, suggesting an influx of migrants bolstered local grievances. Our findings support the internal migration hypothesis and suggest extreme climate events may impact civil unrest via geographically and temporally indirect paths.

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Section: The Debate Over Drought and Conflict In Syriamentioning

confidence: 91%

Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset

Ash

Obradovich

2019

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…With the inclusion of these fixed effects, the regression coefficients are identified by within-community variation in climatic conditions that departs from the national climate trend (as well as the seasonal trend in the case of WFH). Because this variation is exogenous to households and individuals, it can be interpreted as a natural experiment (Nordkvelle et al 2017). Building on previous analyses of child undernutrition in this context (De Silva and Sumarto 2018), we flexibility control for child age via a set of fixed effects for month of age.…”

Section: Measures and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate exposures and child undernutrition: Evidence from Indonesia

Thiede

Gray

2020

Social Science & Medicine

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Global climate change has the potential to disrupt agricultural systems, undermine household socioeconomic status, and shape the prevalence and distribution of diseases. Each of these changes may influence children's nutritional status, which is sensitive to food availability, access, and utilization, and which may have lasting consequences for later-life health and socioeconomic outcomes. This paper contributes to the emerging literature on climate and child health by studying the effects of temperature and precipitation exposures on children's height and weight in Indonesia. Drawing on five rounds of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) implemented between 1993 and 2015, we estimate fixed-effects regression models of height-for-age (HFA) and weight-for-height (WFH) among samples of children ages 24-59 months and 0-23 months, respectively. We test for heterogeneity in these effects across sub-populations expected to vary in their vulnerability. Results show that delays in monsoon onset are consistently associated with worse child health outcomes. Delays in monsoon onset during the prenatal period are associated with reduced child height among children age 2-4 years, and these effects are concentrated among males. The weight of young (<2 years) children is adversely affected by delays in the most recent monsoon season, and this relationship is particularly strong among residents of Java. Overall, our results underline the need for interventions that protect children's nutrition and underlying health against the effects of climate change.

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“…Similarly, research by Fjelde and von Uexkull (2012) suggests that unfavorable deviations from precipitation patterns increase the risk of communal conflict. A more detailed picture is provided by Nordkvelle, Rustad, and Salmivalli (2017) who are comparing periodic climate impacts; they find short-term dry periods as well as unusually long wet periods to affect communal violence. Yet, discussing conflicts over water specifically, Böhmelt et al (2014) find no evidence that short-term changes in rainfall and temperature are eminent explanatory factors for such disputes.…”

Section: Previous Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Come rain, or come wells: How access to groundwater affects communal violence

Döring

2020

Political Geography

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This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between groundwater scarcity and incidences of communal violence. Case studies suggest that appropriating water is more likely when resource scarcities are not effectively mitigated and where property rights are disputed. Yet, covering water more broadly remains piecemeal in quantitative research on communal conflict. While water scarcity features in large-N literature on climate variability and non-state conflicts, such studies rely heavily on rainfall data which covers only one aspect of the hydrological cycle. Employing precipitation data alone neglects the use of groundwater, an important factor for drought resilience and the source for 50% of global drinking water. While rainfall remains key for agriculture, pastoralists and small-scale farmers in particular rely on groundwater as a buffer during dry periods. Thus, analyses on water scarcity and conflict ought to combine measures for groundwater, surface water, and precipitation. While controlling for other sources of water, the lack of groundwater access is hypothesized to increase incidences of violent communal conflict. The effect of groundwater on communal violence is also argued to vary with the presence of drought, low rainfall, in densely populated areas, and with state presence. These propositions are tested through large-N analyses using previously not utilized data on water availability with incidence data on violent conflict for Africa and the Middle East (1990-2014). The results show that lacking access to groundwater is associated with a higher risk of communal violence. Further, the effect of groundwater access on communal violence is conditioned by precipitation levels as well as population density. The results also suggest that the effect of groundwater on violence is smaller in areas with higher state presence.

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Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization

Cited by 38 publications

References 21 publications

Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset

Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset

Climate exposures and child undernutrition: Evidence from Indonesia

Come rain, or come wells: How access to groundwater affects communal violence

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