“…There- Table 2 Local sensitivity analysis (one-parameter-at-a-time) of the main state variables of the model to +/− 10% and +/−50% variation of the parameter values. fore, the importance of the socioeconomic situation in relation to land use change is generally recognized (Brandt et al, 1999): the direct aid to cereal areas and to some grazing animals into single payments to farmers, which are decoupled from production, resulted in land owners that have tended to replace sheep and goats with cattle, which in last 16 years increased its numbers by 2.5 times due to CAP support (Dýrmundsson, 2004;Pinto-Correia and Godinho, 2013;Pinto-Correia et al, 2014;Viegas et al, 2014). After the abandonment of cereal crops and livestock rearing, during the 70's, shrub clearing and rotational ploughing became common practices to control shrub invasion, to promote pasture production and prevent fire (Pignatti, 1983;Pulido et al, 2001;Plieninger et al, 2003Plieninger et al, , 2004Plieninger et al, , 2005.…”