Sustainability of political systems of EAEU member-states and the crises of 2020. Part 1. Belarus.

Abstract

The object of this research is the political system of the Republic of Belarus viewed in the context of sociopolitical conflict instigated by the results of presidential election of 2020. The Eurasian Economic Union faced a number of severe internal problems: besides the protests in Belarus, the parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan led to resignation of the incumbent president, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has escalated. Therefore, special attention is given to examination of the factors of sustainability of the political system their significance for Eurasian integration and Russia-Belarus bilateral relations. The authors assesses the consequences of the manifestations of crisis, and analyzes the mechanisms of resilience of the political system to the internal challenges. The history of establishment of the modern structure of political system of Belarus is analyzed. The formal institutional and factual functional relations are revealed. The author’s special contribution lies in the assessment of factors of sustainability of the political system of Belarus. Understanding of sustainability of political systems of regional nations is the cornerstone in risk assessment caused by integration and forecasting of the development of international relations in the region. The political system of Belarus, which has been formed throughout 26 years of presidency of A. G. Lukashenko, is currently (and so far successfully) being stress tested. The built vertical of executive power allowed to “amortize” the colossal level of tension emerged in the society after the announcement of voting results. It is determined that the consequences of crisis in Belarus are overall positive for Russia and EAEU. However, the risks of further destabilization of the political system and regime change pose a serious threat for the development of integration project.