Opportunities and threats for integration cooperation within the framework of the Union State of Belarus and Russia: strategic situational analysis. Part 2

Abstract

Aims: identification of the advantages and vulnerabilities of the Union State of Belarus and Russia as an integration format.Methods: informal substantive analysis of documents, formal legal method, SWOT analysis.Results and discussion: The strengths and weaknesses of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, opportunities and threats in internal and external dimensions are shown. The corresponding matrices characterizing the parameters of their probability and values for the Union construction are constructed. The content of integration decisions and agreements in key areas of Russian- Belarusian integration is analyzed. The peculiarities of the positions of the member states of the Union State on topical issues of the integration agenda are emphasized.Conclusion: The saturation of the analyzed evaluation areas demonstrates a high degree of probability of the realization of both relevant opportunities and threats to the Union State of Belarus and Russia in internal and external dimensions. With a less risky development of events, it is internal factors that can change the qualitative characteristics of the process and the state of Russian-Belarusian integration — in a positive or negative sense. However, now a powerful destructive external influence is exerted on the Union State and its member countries, which can become the main driver of accelerating the “restart” of Russian- Belarusian integration.