Surprisingly malleable public preferences for climate adaptation in forests

Abstract

Researchers and policy-makers often assume that public preferences for climate change adaptation are positive and stable compared to those of mitigation. However, public judgments about adaptation in natural resource sectors (like forestry) require that people make difficult, value-laden and uncertain trade-offs across complex social-ecological systems. The deliberative methods (e.g. focus groups and in-depth interviews) that are typically used to explore the malleability of these judgments may underestimate the level of preference malleability in broader publics by encouraging participants to rationalize their choices in relation to their own knowledge, values and beliefs, as well as those of others. Here, we use a public survey (N=1926) from British Columbia, Canada-where forestry is economically, environmentally and culturally vital-to investigate the malleability of public preferences for genomics-based assisted migration (AM) for climate change adaptation in forests. Following an initial judgment, respondents are given new information about AM's potential implementation and impacts-simple messages similar to those that they might encounter through traditional and social media. The results show that respondents' initial judgments are surprisingly malleable, and prone to large bi-directional shifts across all message types. The magnitude of this malleability is related to the degree of the proposed intervention, the type of message, and individuals' demographic and psychographic characteristics. These results suggest that high levels of initial public support may be illusory, and that more attention should be paid to the potential for malleability, controversy and contradiction as adaptation policies are developed and implemented. Process-based arguments related to transparent, evidence-based and adaptive governance may be more influential than risk-based arguments related to climate change and economic impacts.

Redefining climate change maladaptation using a values‐based approach in forests

“…In contrast, more constrained methods, like surveys or questionnaires, have been shown to encourage superficial judgements that may prove unstable under scrutiny and over time (Satterfield et al, 2013). In Findlater et al (2020), for instance, we found that the preferences expressed by respondents to a public survey on genomics-based AM were particularly unstable in response to simple messages about AM's potential implementation and impacts, like those that they might see in traditional and social media.…”

“…Emerging technologies, in particular, are often steeped in ethical and scientific uncertainties well-suited to stakeholder engagement early in the research and development process (i.e. 'upstream') to ensure responsible innovation by accounting for the diversity of values and preferences within and between groups, and the potential for changes in opinion (Findlater et al, 2020). Qualitative methods that allow for open-ended responses provide participants the freedom to elaborate nuanced logics in articulating their judgements, producing richer data and revealing relationships that may be invisible when using quantitative methods alone .…”

“…Genomics-based AM is a technologically driven policy change, from geographically based reforestation to climate-based seed transfer (e.g. FLNRORD, 2018), steeped in the kinds of ethical and scientific uncertainties that often motivate 'upstream' public and stakeholder engagement (Aubin et al, 2011;Findlater et al, 2020;Tindall et al, 2010). AM is expected to lessen the harms of climate change impacts (Gray & Hamann, 2011;Williams & Dumroese, 2013), but taking such action in a complex social-ecological system may also generate unanticipated knock-on effects through technical, ecological and socio-political linkages.…”

Finding shared meaning in the Anthropocene: engaging diverse perspectives on climate change

“…Global warming can get crowded, or selected, out of relevance somewhat as an attention-saving mechanism (Whitman et al 2018). Shared learning gains in small-scale, highly-deliberate processes may not last once participants return to day-to-day tasks and complicated media landscapes (Findlater et al 2020).…”

Forest Management and Adaptation Strategies in Response to Climate Change by the Taiwanese Public

“…Furthermore, effectiveness of forest governance depends on the public's support for forest management [28]. Public awareness also affects the acceptance of forest management strategies, which is important for the formulation and implementation of successful adaptation strategies, policies and actions [29][30][31]. Altinay [32] indicated that the public's awareness of climate change is closely correlated with their support of relevant policies for adapting and reducing the effects of climate change.…”