Surprise influences hindsight–foresight differences in temporal judgments of animated automobile accidents

Abstract

The hindsight bias occurs when people view an outcome as more foreseeable than it actually was. The role of an outcome's initial surprise in the hindsight bias was examined using animations of automobile accidents. Twenty-six participants rated the initial surprise of accidents' occurring in eight animations. An additional 84 participants viewed these animations in one of two conditions: Half stopped the animations when they were certain an accident would occur (i.e., in foresight), and the other half watched the entire animations first and then stopped the animations when they thought that a naïve viewer would be certain that an accident would occur (i.e., in hindsight). When the accidents were low in initial surprise, there were no foresight-hindsight differences; when initial surprise was medium, there was a hindsight bias; and when initial surprise was high, there was a reversed hindsight bias. The results are consistent with a sense-making model of hindsight bias.

Hindsight Bias in Depression

“…By contrast, participants without depressive symptoms showed reverse pre-to-post-outcome shifts for negative outcomes; that is, negative outcomes appeared less foreseeable and inevitable in hindsight compared to foresight. Highly surprising outcomes can diminish or reverse hindsight bias (e.g., Calvillo & Gomes, 2011), and the result thus presumably reflects healthy cognition in healthy individuals: Negative outcomes violate their generally positive expectations.…”

“…Foreseeability impressions refer to our own past mental states regarding the outcome (“I knew it all along”). Consequently, these judgments strongly depend on metacognitive input, such as the level of surprise (Calvillo & Gomes, 2011).…”

Cultural Interpretations of Global Information? Hindsight Bias after Reading Wikipedia Articles across Cultures

“…Second, a holistic mindset leaves less room for surprise, which, in turn, could likewise result in a greater hindsight bias (Choi & Nisbett, ). If an event seems little surprising, it ought to have been foreseeable or due to happen from a hindsight perspective (Ash, ; Calvillo & Gomes, ; Pezzo, ). Taken together, these two aspects argue for a larger hindsight bias in holistic thinkers.…”

Auditory hindsight bias

“…Hindsight bias can, however, be reduced, eliminated, or reversed by surprise (Calvillo & Gomes, 2011;Pezzo, 2003), by considering alternative explanations (Koriat, Lichtenstein, & Fischhoff, 1980), and by taking another person's perspective (Todd et al, 2011). Considering alternative explanations or taking another person's perspective could alert the speaker to a gap in the listener's knowledge base, thus leading the speaker to provide more information and clarify the message.…”