Support Costs and Reliability in Weapons Acquisition: Approaches for Evaluating New Systems

Tyson, Karen W.; Robinson, Mitchell S.; Welman, Stephen K.; Horowitz, Stanley A.; McBryde, Graham D.

doi:10.21236/ada227592

Cited by 2 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 1 publication

(4 reference statements)

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“…Emerson (1976) has developed a model for assessing the airbase damage during battles. The failure of different subsystems of fixed wing aircraft during the South East Asian Conflict has been analysed by Ball (1985) and Tyson et al (1990). Cooley (1999) has analysed failure data on electrical and electronic components contributing to aircraft mishaps.…”

Section: Past and Recent Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This can always be varied in any simulation experiment. (The battle damage probabilities for different subsystems of aircraft have been based on South East Asian war data (Tyson et al , 1990)).In this case study, simulation results have been validated with expert opinions and limited data available to the authors. The expert opinions are based on the data provided by the scientists of the first author's earlier laboratory (CASSA (DRDO)).…”

Section: Validation and Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Validation and Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Availability estimation using simulation for military systems

Upadhya

Srinivasan²

2012

Int J Qual & Reliability Mgmt

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PurposeAvailability of military systems is of major concern for military planners at both tactical (battle) level and at strategic level (long‐term national planning). Availability factors critically affect the operational effectiveness during military operations. Military systems are complex and lend themselves to simulation approach for availability estimation as analytical solutions are extremely difficult. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the method of systems modeling to approach the simulation for availability estimation of military systems.Design/methodology/approachAvailability measures are needed for two main domains of application: peacetime operations and battlefield situations. Availability measures include not only inherent availability of interest to designers/manufacturers, but also operational availability and field/service availability. The simulation approach adopted here involves discrete event simulation (DES) techniques using Monte Carlo methods since a network of events can be included in the model. A system engineering approach is emphasized, starting with system representation and characterisation, and using system aggregation techniques.FindingsModeling involves hierarchical models and network diagrams for events. First the system is described by a hierarchical model; the events and transitions are represented with state transition diagrams (STD). The simulation scheme would be based on initial resources or inventory as military operations proceed, with random variates for event times or rates. The availability as a function of time A(t) is arrived at. The reliability and maintainability models are simulated with probability distributions or using empirical distributions. The methods of data collection and analysis, and sensitivity analysis are mentioned. The methodology is explained with two case studies from the authors' work. The approaches of other workers in recent years are summarised.Originality/valueThe paper shows that the simulation models can suitably be modified to include their applications for army and navy military operations. Also, with proper data on all major subsystems of interest for the weapon platform and accurate past war data, it is possible to fine‐tune the models for online use during military campaigns. The availability figures thus obtained may also be used for procurement decisions for long‐term and strategic planning.

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Section: Past and Recent Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Validation and Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Availability estimation using simulation for military systems

Upadhya

Srinivasan²

2012

Int J Qual & Reliability Mgmt

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“…As this subject is highly sensitive and much data are not available in the open literature or through other historical sources to the present authors, the choice of parameters for input variations is based on expert opinion, relevant reports and interaction with user groups (Tyson et al, 1990). The values used are considered typical and indicative of the battlefield conditions, which could, however, vary widely in different conflicts.…”

Section: Parameter Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The failure of the aircraft may be due to the failure of one or more of its subsystems. After studying the southeast Asia war data, we found that the subsystems structures, flight control, propulsion, fuel system, power system, avionics, crew station and armament fitments caused the aircraft failure (Tyson et al, 1990). Therefore, in the present simulation, we have considered the failure for these subsystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Availability of weapon systems with multiple failures and logistic delays

Upadhya

Srinivasan²

2003

International Journal of Quality &Amp; Reliability Management

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Maintaining a high level of availability of weapon systems during battles becomes important from the point of view of winning the battle. Due to attrition factors (failure due to battle damage and unreliability) and logistic delays in the repair process, maintaining the required level of availability is difficult. In this paper, we develop a simulation model for availability of fighter aircraft considering multiple failures causing system failure and logistic delays in the repair process. The methodology is based on discrete event simulation using Monte Carlo techniques. The failure time distribution (Weibull) and the repair time distribution (exponential) for the considered subsystems of the aircraft and the logistic delay time distribution (log-normal) for the logistic factors spares, crew and equipment were chosen with suitable parameters. The results indicate the pronounced decrease in availability (as low as less than 10 per cent in some cases) due to multiple failures and logistic delays. The results are, however, highly sensitive to a combination of reliability, maintainability and logistic delay parameters.

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Support Costs and Reliability in Weapons Acquisition: Approaches for Evaluating New Systems

Abstract: This Paper has been reviewed by IDA to assure that It meets high standards of thoroughness, objectivity, and appropriate analytical math. !ogy and that the results, I conclusions and recommendation are properly supported by the material presented.

Cited by 2 publications

References 1 publication

Availability estimation using simulation for military systems

Availability estimation using simulation for military systems

Availability of weapon systems with multiple failures and logistic delays

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