Availability of weapon systems with multiple failures and logistic delays

Abstract

Maintaining a high level of availability of weapon systems during battles becomes important from the point of view of winning the battle. Due to attrition factors (failure due to battle damage and unreliability) and logistic delays in the repair process, maintaining the required level of availability is difficult. In this paper, we develop a simulation model for availability of fighter aircraft considering multiple failures causing system failure and logistic delays in the repair process. The methodology is based on discrete event simulation using Monte Carlo techniques. The failure time distribution (Weibull) and the repair time distribution (exponential) for the considered subsystems of the aircraft and the logistic delay time distribution (log-normal) for the logistic factors spares, crew and equipment were chosen with suitable parameters. The results indicate the pronounced decrease in availability (as low as less than 10 per cent in some cases) due to multiple failures and logistic delays. The results are, however, highly sensitive to a combination of reliability, maintainability and logistic delay parameters.