Suitable areas for invasive insect pests in Brazil and the potential impacts for eucalyptus forestry

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Brazil is among the world's largest producers of eucalyptus and the damage caused by native and invasive insect pests is one of the main factors affecting eucalyptus yield. The recent history of biological invasions of eucalyptus pests in Brazil prompts demand for phytosanitary measures to prevent new invasions. This study used ecological niche models to estimate suitable areas for nine eucalyptus pests. This information was used to assess the potential ports of entry, generate invasion risk maps considering the likelihood of introducing invasive species, and estimate the eucalyptus producing municipalities and areas within the species' suitable range.RESULTS: A large distribution range was predicted for Eucalyptolyma maideni (Hempitera: Aphalaridae), Orgya postica (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), Sinoxylon anale (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), and Trachymela sloanei (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Brazil, while a comparatively smaller distribution was predicted for Ophelimus maskelli (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), Mnesampela privata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), Paropsis atomaria (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), Paropsisterna beata, and P. cloelia (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). High-risk areas of invasion near airports and seaports were predicted mainly in southern, southeastern, and northeastern Brazil. A large proportion of the municipalities (24.4% to 93.7%) and areas with eucalyptus plantations (31.9% to 98.3%) are within the climatically suitable areas estimated for the pests, especially in southern and southeastern regions, which comprises 61.5% of the Brazilian eucalyptus production. CONCLUSION:The results indicate that eucalyptus forestry may be significantly impacted by biological invasion. The findings provided by our study can assist decision-makers in developing phytosanitary measures to prevent new invasions of forest pests in Brazil.

Climate change impacts the risk of invasion of eucalypt pests in Brazil

“…Although this presence‐only algorithm is recognized by its high statistical performance, the development of models with an appropriate level of complexity is still necessary to generate reliable estimations of species suitability, especially when they are projected onto space and time as in our study (Boria et al, 2014; Morales et al, 2017). Therefore, we followed the methodology of Mota et al (2022) for model development. First, the Köppen–Geiger climate zones with one or more occurrence records were used to delimitate the study area (background) and employed to calibrate the models.…”

“…The species such as Eucalyptus grandis , Eucalyptus saligna , Eucalyptus urophylla , Eucalyptus viminalis , Eucalyptus dunii and Eucalyptus benthamii are the most cultivated in Brazil due to the characteristics of their wood and adaptation to the soil and climatic conditions found in the country. In a previous study, information on the likelihoods of arrival and establishment were combined to assess areas at high risk of invasion by nine exotic insect pests of Eucalyptus trees in Brazil (Mota et al, 2022). This study found that a large proportion of the Brazilian Eucalyptus plantation may be impacted if the studied species invade and spread to the major production areas within the suitable conditions predicted for the pests.…”

Biogeography of cereal stemborers and their natural enemies: forecasting pest management efficacy under changing climate

“…In addition, using the AUC metrics to evaluate the models has the advantage of being threshold‐independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. This was very relevant in this study because the occurrence points of the different pests and parasitoids varied spatially across the study area 80,81 …”

“…This was very relevant in this study because the occurrence points of the different pests and parasitoids varied spatially across the study area. 80,81 The ASCII outputs from MaxEnt were converted to GEOTIFF binary maps depicting suitable and unsuitable habitats based on the ten-percentile training presence logistic threshold.…”

Genetically engineered eucalyptus expressing pesticidal proteins from Bacillus thuringiensis for insect resistance: a risk assessment evaluation perspective

“…This helps in protecting native forests by reducing the utilization of wood from these ecologically important areas. Brazilian eucalyptus farms are managed using modern agricultural practices akin to other row crops, and like any other crop, they are challenged by pests, including exotic pests introduced by eucalyptus originating from Australia and native Brazilian pests that have rapidly adapted to a eucalyptus diet ( Paine et al, 2011 ; Mota et al, 2022 ).…”