Suicide and drought in New South Wales, Australia, 1970–2007

Abstract

There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change.

Lack of association between drought and mental health in a cohort of 45–61 year old rural Australian women

“…54,55 Over the 12 years of this longitudinal prospective study, drought was not associated with poorer mental health in mid-aged women in general, or in groups of potentially vulnerable women. The finding that, compared with men, women were at reduced relative risk of suicide during drought 13 suggests that rural women appear to be less affected by drought than rural men. As with all epidemiological studies, the findings relate to average effects and so may not hold true for individual women, whose mental health may be affected by drought.…”

“…16 Furthermore, a large New South Wales study found an increased relative risk of suicide for 10-49 year old rural males with increasing drought, but not for females or older males. 13 These findings suggest that rural women are less affected by drought than men, providing hope that identifying factors that keep women healthy could inform prevention interventions for men in drought-affected communities.…”

“…40 The Hutchinson Drought Index counts consecutive months of lower-than-median rainfall based on percentiles of rainfall recorded at each location. 13,40 A comparison of NSW agricultural drought declarations and the Hutchinson Drought Index, published in 1992, showed good agreement when the Hutchinson Drought Index score indicated at least ten months of abnormally dry conditions. Another advantage of the Hutchinson Drought Index is that it allows valid comparisons of drought across different regions and different years.…”

Factors influencing suicide in older rural males: a review of Australian studies

“…In addition, the increasing requirement for women to work in other paid positions away from the farm has been identified as causing feelings of inadequacy, and therefore psychological distress, in older males. In addition, the increasing unpredictability of climate patterns leading to long periods of drought and/or unseasonal flooding have had an impact on the psychological state of rural communities 10,11,39 .…”

Breeding for Drought Resistance Using Whole Plant Architecture — Conventional and Molecular Approach

“…There have been scores of farmer suicides due to losses caused by drought and associated problems in different States of India [3,4]. A link between drought and suicides has been established in Australia [5], Africa, and in the South America. Thus as a trait, drought resistance has immense value to the individual farmer and the society.…”