been more encouraging. The trial should therefore not be regarded as a definitive dismissal of the promise of these or related agents. 3 Theoretically, depression in bipolar disorder is a more heterogeneous construct than mania, which is more monothematically biological in its causation. Depression is driven by a far wider array and admixture of biological factors, consequences of behaviours while manic, losses in domains such as educational and vocational horizons, relationships, personality, finances, guilt, stigma, and self-stigma, among others. Therefore, it is arguably ambitious at the outset to expect a singular biological therapy targeting one biological marker of the disorder to address all phenotypes of this heterogeneous clinical presentation. The complexity of bipolar depression might be an explanation more broadly for the relatively common failure of singular treatment approaches. These failures suggest that polyvalent and personalised therapies predicated on individualised profiles are needed to select from the diverse pharmacological, neurostimulatory, nutraceutical, lifestyle, and psychological approaches that are available. 10 In sum, this might not be the last word on the potential role of anti-inflammatory drugs in the treatment of bipolar depression, but notwithstanding the methodological issues that accompany any clinical trial, the promise of targeting the inflammation pathway in the management of this challenging condition is today somewhat weaker.

Purpose Physical distancing policies in the state of New South Wales (Australia) were implemented on March 23, 2020, because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigated changes in physical activity, dietary behaviors, and well-being during the early period of this policy. Methods A cohort of young people aged 13–19 years from Sydney (N = 582) were prospectively followed for 22 weeks (November 18, 2019, to April 19, 2020). Daily, weekly, and monthly trajectories of diet, physical activity, sedentary behavior, well-being, and psychological distress were collected via smartphone, using a series of ecological momentary assessments and smartphone sensors. Differences in health and well-being outcomes were compared pre- and post-implementation of physical distancing guidelines. Results After the implementation of physical distancing measures in NSW, there were significant decreases in physical activity (odds ratio [OR] = .53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = .34–.83), increases in social media and Internet use (OR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.15–3.00), and increased screen time based on participants' smartphone screen state. Physical distancing measures were also associated with being alone in the previous hour (OR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.33–3.28), decreases in happiness (OR = .38, 95% CI = .18–.82), and fast food consumption (OR = .46, 95% CI = .29–.73). Conclusions Physical distancing and social restrictions had a contemporaneous impact on health and well-being outcomes associated with chronic disease among young people. As the pandemic evolves, it will be important to consider how to mitigate against any longer term health impacts of physical distancing restrictions.

BackgroundThere are ongoing questions about whether unemployment has causal effects on suicide as this relationship may be confounded by past experiences of mental illness. The present review quantified the effects of adjustment for mental health on the relationship between unemployment and suicide. Findings were used to develop and interpret likely causal models of unemployment, mental health and suicide.MethodA random-effects meta-analysis was conducted on five population-based cohort studies where temporal relationships could be clearly ascertained.ResultsResults of the meta-analysis showed that unemployment was associated with a significantly higher relative risk (RR) of suicide before adjustment for prior mental health [RR 1.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33–1.83]. After controlling for mental health, the RR of suicide following unemployment was reduced by approximately 37% (RR 1.15, 95% CI 1.00–1.30). Greater exposure to unemployment was associated with higher RR of suicide, and the pooled RR was higher for males than for females.ConclusionsPlausible interpretations of likely pathways between unemployment and suicide are complex and difficult to validate given the poor delineation of associations over time and analytic rationale for confounder adjustment evident in the revised literature. Future research would be strengthened by explicit articulation of temporal relationships and causal assumptions. This would be complemented by longitudinal study designs suitable to assess potential confounders, mediators and effect modifiers influencing the relationship between unemployment and suicide.

BackgroundDepression is a leading source of morbidity and health loss in Australian women. This study investigates the determinants of antenatal depressive symptoms and postnatal depressive symptoms in an Australian population, including people from culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) backgrounds.MethodThe study used a retrospective cohort of mothers of all live births in public health facilities in 2014 (N = 17,564) within South Western Sydney Local Health District and Sydney Local Health District in New South Wales, Australia. Prevalence of antenatal and postnatal depressive symptoms were estimated for the cohort. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to investigate the sociodemographic, psychological and health service determinants of antenatal and postnatal depressive symptoms, measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS).ResultsThe prevalence of antenatal and postnatal depressive symptoms was 6.2% and 3.3% of the cohort, respectively. Significant risk factors for maternal depressive symptoms during pregnancy were, a lack of partner support, history of intimate partner violence, being from the CALD population and low socioeconomic status. Self-reported antenatal depressive symptoms were strongly associated with postnatal depressive symptoms. Risk factors for postnatal depressive symptoms were similar to those for antenatal depressive symptoms, as well as assisted delivery.ConclusionFactors relating to demographic and psychosocial disadvantage were associated with subsequent antenatal and postnatal depressive symptoms in New South Wales, Australia. Our study suggests that screening for probable depression and timely referral for expert assessment of at-risk mothers may be an effective strategy to improve maternal mental health outcomes.

Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to more sophisticated multimethod modelling that provides policy makers with more powerful tools to support the design of targeted, effective and equitable policy responses for complex health problems. Building capacity and investing in communication to promote these modelling methods, as well as documenting and evaluating their applications, will be vital to supporting uptake by policy makers.

BackgroundIn the design of public health policy, a broader understanding of risk factors for disease across the life course, and an increasing awareness of the social determinants of health, has led to the development of more comprehensive, cross-sectoral strategies to tackle complex problems. However, comprehensive strategies may not represent the most efficient or effective approach to reducing disease burden at the population level. Rather, they may act to spread finite resources less intensively over a greater number of programs and initiatives, diluting the potential impact of the investment. While analytic tools are available that use research evidence to help identify and prioritise disease risk factors for public health action, they are inadequate to support more targeted and effective policy responses for complex public health problems.DiscussionThis paper discusses the limitations of analytic tools that are commonly used to support evidence-informed policy decisions for complex problems. It proposes an alternative policy analysis tool which can integrate diverse evidence sources and provide a platform for virtual testing of policy alternatives in order to design solutions that are efficient, effective, and equitable. The case of suicide prevention in Australia is presented to demonstrate the limitations of current tools to adequately inform prevention policy and discusses the utility of the new policy analysis tool.SummaryIn contrast to popular belief, a systems approach takes a step beyond comprehensive thinking and seeks to identify where best to target public health action and resources for optimal impact. It is concerned primarily with what can be reasonably left out of strategies for prevention and can be used to explore where disinvestment may occur without adversely affecting population health (or equity). Simulation modelling used for policy analysis offers promise in being able to better operationalise research evidence to support decision making for complex problems, improve targeting of public health policy, and offers a foundation for strengthening relationships between policy makers, stakeholders, and researchers.

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These findings suggest social causation of mental disorders and suicide attempts, and the need for social and economic responses beyond provision of mental health services.