Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region

Zullo, Jurandir; Pereira, Vânia Rosa; Koga-Vicente, Andrea

doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2249-4

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…In Central Cerrado, specially in the state of Goiás, sugar cane area and production decline by more than 50% in the RCP8.5-LPJmL scenario (Fig S17b and d and Table S10). These results are in agreement with the findings of Zullo et al (2018), who attributed the increase in the climatic risk of sugar cane production in the area to a reduction in water availability. The impacts of climate change on pasture yield considered here affect the livestock sector through losses in productivity and, to a lesser extent, through losses in soybeans and corn production used as livestock feed.…”

Section: Cornsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Sugar cane potential yield increases with warmer temperature and increased CO 2 concentration due to reduced water demand (Pinto and other, 2008;Marin et al, 2013). However, higher temperatures and longer and more intense dry spells results in larger losses in tropical regions without irrigation (Araújo et Zullo et al, 2018). LPJmL explicitly accounts for the C3 and C4 photosynthesis pathways (Weindl et al, 2015), and thus it is more sensitive to changes in temperature than water availability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies analyzed the impacts of climatic changes on the potential productivity of Brazilian agriculture (Margulis et al, 2011), and its main commodities, such as soybeans (Tavares et al, 2010;Zanon et al, 2016), corn (Resende et al, 2011;Costa et al, 2009), and sugar cane (Zullo, Pereira and Koga-Vicente, 2018;Marin, Jones, Singels, Royce, Assad, Pellegrino and Justino, 2013;Carvalho, Menezes, Nóbrega, Pinto, Ometto, von Randow and Giarolla, 2015). These studies focused on specific regions and only consid-ered incremental changes (increase or decrease) on individual atmospheric variables (temperature, precipitation, CO 2 concentration).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture

Zilli

Scarabello

Soterroni

et al. 2020

Science of The Total Environment

100

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Projections of climate change impacts on main Brazilian agricultural commodities • Use of spatial explicit partial equilibrium global land use model adapted to Brazil • Framework integrating land-use competition and biophysical and economic aspects • Displacement of soybean and corn production toward subtropical regions of Brazil • Decrease in soybean and corn production, especially in the Matopiba region

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Section: Cornsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture

Zilli

Scarabello

Soterroni

et al. 2020

Science of The Total Environment

100

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Currently Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer around the world (FAO, 2020). Several studies have been developed with the theme of the climate change impacts on sugarcane production in Brazil and address different aspects (CARVALHO et al, 2015;MARIN et al, 2013;ZULLO;KOGA-VICENTE, 2018). According to Teodoro et al (2013), studies that relate the consumption of water by crops and the use of water resources for irrigation are becoming more frequent, since irrigation is a factor that has a great influence on agricultural productivity and cost.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on the Sugar Cane Irrigation Water Demand in the Gramame River Watershed

Meira

Barros

2022

R_I

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Climate change is a recurring theme as it impacts various sectors of society, including water resources, reflecting directly on human beings' activities. In this context, the objective of this study was to assess the impacts produced by climate change on the sugarcane water demands for irrigation in four municipalities within the Gramame River watershed. For this, the irrigation water demand was estimated from the calculation of the evapotranspiration of the sugarcane culture. The temperature data used in these estimates were obtained from the projections of three Regional Circulation Models: ICHEC-EC-EARTH-RCA4, MPI-ESM-LR-RCA4, and MPI-ESM-LR-REMO2009 taken from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling (CORDEX). These demands were estimated for two intervals of years (2006-2037 and 2038-2069) and for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The patterns of the temperature projections of the three models were evaluated and corrected in order to reduce uncertainties. The results indicate that the MPI-ESM-LR-REMO2009 model was the one that best represented the temperature in the current climate (1961-2005). Furthermore, the increase in temperature due to climate change affects irrigation water demand in the near future (2006-2037) with slight effects, and in the distant future (2038-2069) with stronger impacts.

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“…The advance of sugarcane in Brazil has occurred in several Brazilian states, such as Sao Paulo (Rudorff et al, 2010), Mato Grosso do Sul (Assunção et al, 2016), Goias (Spera et al, 2017) and Parana (Ribeiro et al, 2013). The reasons for such advance are mainly related to one of the main by-products of the crop: ethanol (Zullo et al, 2018). In Brazil, ethanol receives large government incentives for its production (Martinelli & Filoso, 2008), as it is one of the most promising biofuels (Oliveira et al, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change analyses of coffee soil cover in the State of Paraná

Lima

Coltri

2021

Labor e Eng.

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Coffee is a crop of great agronomic interest worldwide. It is one of the most negotiable tropical products, and it has been gaining “specialty” status around the world, with increasing number of plantations in places with Geographical Indications. Studies show that coffee has been undergoing recent changes in planting area, due to different economic, social, cultural, and climatic reasons. The change of in the planted area of a crop causes many different events; among them, the substitution of it for other agricultural crops. As such, sugarcane is a crop that has been recently gaining space, as its planted area increased considerably. In this sense, this work sought to analyze the change in the use and occupation of coffee soil in the State of Paraná between 1998 and 2018, comparing it with the change in the use of sugarcane soil; with altitude; and with regions with indication of source in the state. The results suggest a reduction of 92.29% of the planted area of coffee and an increase of 289.87% in the planted area of sugarcane. The results also suggests that coffee was replaced by sugarcane in some sites. The remaining coffee plantations were concentrated in the region of indication of source in the Northern region of the state, which has lower altitudes.

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Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region

Cited by 9 publications

References 49 publications

The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture

The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture

Impact of Climate Change on the Sugar Cane Irrigation Water Demand in the Gramame River Watershed

Change analyses of coffee soil cover in the State of Paraná

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