Success of a Cervical Cancer Screening Program: Trends in Incidence in Songkhla, Southern Thailand, 1989-2010, and Prediction of Future Incidences to 2030

Sriplung, Hutcha; Singkham, Phathai; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Jiraphongsa, Chuleeporn; Bilheem, Surichai

doi:10.7314/apjcp.2014.15.22.10003

Cited by 33 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Our decomposition analysis suggests that the increase in risk-attributable burden due to high BMI is considerably smaller than it could have been if underlying rates, particularly for cardiovascular diseases, had not declined as much as they did over the past decade. The decline in the underlying rates is likely due to expanded access to preventive treatment and increased quality of care 116, 117, 118, 119, 120. If obesity continues to increase in the future, the consequences for health trends might be greater if the trend in underlying rates attenuates than if it continues to decrease.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Forouzanfar¹,

Alexander²,

Anderson³

et al. 2016

The Lancet

4,359

2,025

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SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.MethodsWe used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).FindingsBetween 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DA...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Forouzanfar¹,

Alexander²,

Anderson³

et al. 2016

The Lancet

4,359

2,025

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“…This registry actively collects information on cancer cases from all 16 districts located in the Songkhla Province. Details of the Songkhla Cancer Registry have been described previously . Briefly, the registry was established in 1989 and captures cancer cases from 23 sources that include Songklanagarind Hospital, Hat Yai Hospital, Songkhla Hospital, and the population registration office of the Songkhla Province.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences in childhood leukemia incidence and survival between Southern Thailand and the United States: a population-based analysis

Demanelis

Sriplung

Meza

et al. 2015

Pediatr Blood Cancer

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BACKGROUND Childhood leukemia incidence and survival varies globally, and this variation may be attributed to environmental risk factors, genetics, and/or disparities in diagnosis and treatment. PROCEDURE We analyzed childhood leukemia incidence and survival trends in children age 0–19 years from 1990 to 2011 in Songkhla, Thailand (n=316) and compared these results to US data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry (n=6,738). We computed relative survival using Ederer II and estimated survival functions using the Kaplan-Meier method. Changes in incidence and five-year survival by year of diagnosis were evaluated using joinpoint regression and are reported as annual percent changes (APC). RESULTS The age-standardized incidence of leukemia was 3.2 and 4.1 cases per 100,000 in Songkhla and SEER-9, respectively. In Songkhla, incidence from 1990–2011 significantly increased for leukemia (APC=1.7%, p=0.031) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) (APC=1.8%, p=0.033). Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) incidence significantly increased (APC=4.2%, p=0.044) and was significantly different from the US (p=0.026), where incidence was stable during the same period (APC=0.3%, p=0.541). The overall five-year relative survival for leukemia was lower than that reported in the US (43% vs. 79%). Five-year survival significantly improved by at least 2% per year from 1990–2011 in Songkhla for leukemia, ALL, and AML (p<0.050). CONCLUSIONS While leukemia and ALL incidence increased in Songkhla, differences in leukemia trends, particularly AML incidence, may suggest etiologic or diagnostic differences between Songkhla and the US. This work highlights the importance of evaluating childhood cancer trends in low- and middle-income countries.

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“…A cancer surveillance programme, built around a PBCR, has a major role in informing the initial phases of a national cancer control plans, monitoring progress and evaluating the implementation of specific cancer control policies . Indeed, registry data have been central in assessing the magnitude of the cancer problem in support of the cancer control program in a number of countries in social and economic transition . Thailand launched its second NCCP in 2013 covering the period 2013–2017 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The relatively high rates of cervical cancer in northern Thailand now appear in decline, especially in Lampang . Such a declining trend has been established in southern Thailand since 2000, with the world age‐standardized rate predicted to continue to decline to between 5 and 10 by 2030 . Prior to 2000, there were various opportunistic screening campaigns, until an organized cervical screening program was established in 2002 with national coverage reaching 68% by 2009 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cancer incidence in northern Thailand: Results from six population‐based cancer registries 1993–2012

Pongnikorn

Daoprasert

Waisri

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Cancer

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Rapid changes in social and economic development have led to cancer becoming a major cause of national morbidity and mortality in Thailand. Cancer registries have been critical in documenting subnational cancer patterns and transitions in the country; with the establishment of six registries in northern Thailand, a comprehensive assessment of the scale and profile of cancer is now possible in the region. Cancers of the liver, lung, colorectum, breast and cervix were the major cancers 2008-2012, although variations in the profiles of cancer were observed, with a very high incidence of liver cancer seen among males in Phrae, corresponding to one in 11 men developing the disease in a lifetime. Based on data from Lampang and Chiang Mai 1993-2012, rates of lung and cervical cancer incidence have declined, while liver, colorectal and breast cancer incidence have been increasing up to 2012. A more detailed investigation of the incidence trends for specific cancer sites and subtypes at the local level are crucial to the monitoring and evaluation of the cancer control interventions implemented within the Thai national cancer control programme (NCCP). Priority should be given to extend the capacity of the new registries in northern Thailand, ensuring improvement in quality and utilization of the data to drive epidemiologic research and cancer control.

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Success of a Cervical Cancer Screening Program: Trends in Incidence in Songkhla, Southern Thailand, 1989-2010, and Prediction of Future Incidences to 2030

Cited by 33 publications

References 10 publications

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Differences in childhood leukemia incidence and survival between Southern Thailand and the United States: a population-based analysis

Cancer incidence in northern Thailand: Results from six population‐based cancer registries 1993–2012

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