Subjective Earnings and Academic Expectations of Tertiary Education in Colombia

Abstract

We analysed the academic expectations and earning expectations of a nationally representative sample of Colombian students who were finishing their upper-secondary education (high school) and considering three potential scenarios: whether to finish their studies, enrol in a vocational career, or pursue a college degree. We found that these students' earning expectations are correlated with local labour market wages. However, they expect earnings as university graduates that are significantly above the current observed earnings, which is not the case for the other two levels of education. We also found that earning and academic expectations (test scores and odds of attending college) are closely related to their family socioeconomic background, school and municipality characteristics, and even reflect aspects such as gender gaps or private school premiums. Finally, both academic and earnings expectations are related to actual realised test scores. *

The determinants of expected returns on higher education in Russia: A human capital theory approach

“…Second, we found direct (for family income) and indirect (for parental education and family income) influences of family on the formation of salary expectations, which is also consistent with the results of previous studies (e.g., Androushchak & Natkhov, 2010; Botelho & Pinto, 2004; Brunello et al., 2004; Gamboa & Rodríguez Lesmes, 2014; Prakhov, 2017; Smith & Powell, 1990; Webbink & Hartog, 2004). It was shown that maternal education can influence salary expectations indirectly, that is, through USE scores.…”

“…Family income is another factor that can have a positive effect on students’ salary expectations (Androushchak & Natkhov, 2010; Botelho & Pinto, 2004; Gamboa & Rodríguez Lesmes, 2014; Smith & Powell, 1990; Webbink & Hartog, 2004), both through USE results and directly (Prakhov, 2017): first, students can focus on their parental income, and expect to receive no less after they graduate from university. Thus, family income can serve as a guideline or focal point for students.…”

“…In other words, the research question is: which types/kinds of investment in human capital contribute to higher expectations subject to higher education? While most research on the returns on higher education has been based on data on actual returns (see review by Diagne & Diene, 2011), in recent years a number of works studying the expected salaries of university graduates have been carried out (Anchor et al., 2011; Arcidiacono et al., 2012; Gamboa & Rodríguez Lesmes, 2014; Sequeira et al, 2016), including some looking at the Russian educational market (Androushchak & Natkhov, 2010; Prakhov, 2017). However, evidence shows that the use of the expected or actual values does not lead to significant changes in the results (see, e.g., Dominitz, 2001).…”