The many-body localised (MBL) to thermal crossover observed in exact
diagonalisation studies remains poorly understood as the accessible
system sizes are too small to be in an asymptotic scaling regime.
We develop a model of the crossover in short 1D chains in which the
MBL phase is destabilised by the formation of many-body resonances.
The model reproduces several properties of the numerically observed
crossover, including an apparent correlation length exponent
\nu=1ν=1,
exponential growth of the Thouless time with disorder strength, linear
drift of the critical disorder strength with system size, scale-free
resonances, apparent 1/\omega1/ω
dependence of disorder-averaged spectral functions, and sub-thermal
entanglement entropy of small subsystems.
In the crossover, resonances induced by a local perturbation are rare
at numerically accessible system sizes LL
which are smaller than a \lambdaλ.
For L \gg \sqrt{\lambda}L≫λ
(in lattice units), resonances typically overlap, and this model does
not describe the asymptotic transition.
The model further reproduces controversial numerical observations
which Refs. claimed to be inconsistent with MBL. We thus argue that the
numerics to date is consistent with a MBL phase in the thermodynamic
limit.