Study of association models for determining the growth of the fleet of motor vehicles in the Metropolitan Region of Cariri, Ceará

Abstract

The quality of life underlying the modern society can be attributed to several factors, among them, the technological and economic development experienced in recent years. Durable consumer goods are part of this modern society, such as automobiles. However, because most automobiles are powered by the combustion of fossil fuels, the emission of greenhouse gases is a worrisome environmental problem. The objective of this article is to analyze Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, population and SELIC rate (SELIC stands for Special System of Settlement and Custody) in the period from 2001 to 2020 to evaluate the impact on the number of vehicles in the Cariri Metropolitan Region (RMC), using multivariate models. It was verified that the fleet of the RMC experienced an increase of 561.45% in the last 20 years. Three prediction models were tested and the conclusion was reached that for the next 20 years it is not sustainable to maintain the same growth already experienced, in a linear manner. Instead, the ideal is to adopt a model with growth forecast with a logarithmic function, i. e. with a stationary tendency in the long time. In a society where over 50% of vehicles are more than 10 years old, it is essential that public managers, the private initiative, the academic-scientific environment and society adopt sustainable practices and consider future scenarios to make decisions in order to preserve the environment and to ensure everyone's quality of life.