Studies in Prediction and the Distortion of Reality

Ogburn, William F.

doi:10.2307/2570338

Cited by 14 publications

(19 citation statements)

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“…For decades researchers have documented a link between preferences and expectations, finding that people often hold expectations that are congruent with their preferences (Granberg & Brent, 1983;Hayes, 1936;Ogburn, 1934). For example, Granberg and Brent (1983) tallied survey data across 8 presidential elections and found that 4 out of 5 U.S. adults believed their preferred presidential candidate would win.…”

Section: The Relationship Between Preferences and Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Young Children Are Wishful Thinkers: The Development of Wishful Thinking in 3‐ to 10‐Year‐Old Children

et al. 2019

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Previously, research on wishful thinking has found that desires bias older children's and adults' predictions during probabilistic reasoning tasks. In the present paper, we explore wishful thinking in children aged 3-to 10years-old. Do young children learn to be wishful thinkers? Or do they begin with a wishful thinking bias that is gradually overturned during development? Across 5 experiments, we compare low-and middle-income U.S. and Peruvian 3-to 10-year-old children (N=682). Children were asked to make predictions during games of chance. Across experiments, preschool aged children from all backgrounds consistently displayed a strong wishful thinking bias. However, the bias declined with age.

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Section: The Relationship Between Preferences and Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Young Children Are Wishful Thinkers: The Development of Wishful Thinking in 3‐ to 10‐Year‐Old Children

et al. 2019

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“…Another type of finding that might at first seem to reflect strong support for wishful thinking is the often observed correlation between people's preferences and expectations. For example, people's preferences for political and sporting competitors are potent predictors of their expectations about the winner (e.g., Babad, 1997; Granberg & Brent, 1983; Ogburn, 1934; Wann & Dolan, 1994). However, these correlations do not isolate the causal influence of preferences on expectations.…”

Section: Overoptimism Per Se and Optimism–preference Correlations Arementioning

confidence: 99%

Wishful Thinking about the Future: Does Desire Impact Optimism?

Križan

Windschitl

2009

Social & Personality Psych

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“…These Wndings call for a more complex understanding of the inXuences of team allegiance and outcome desirability on predictions. A wealth of correlational research has focused on how team allegiances are associated with overoptimism (e.g., Babad, 1987;Dolan & Holbrook, 2001;Ogburn, 1934). Research on the broader notion of wishful thinking has emphasized the possibility that desire for an outcome can increase optimism regarding that outcome (e.g., Hogarth, 1987).…”

Section: Likelihood Of Winning (%)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In other words, group members might engage in wishful thinking: feeling overoptimistic about a preferred future outcome as a result of the preference for that outcome (e.g., Granberg & Brent, 1983;Hogarth, 1987). Evidence that group members make overoptimistic predictions about their group's performance is well documented in both sports and political domains (e.g., Babad, 1987;Dolan & Holbrook, 2001;Granberg & Brent, 1983;Hirt et al, 1992;Markman & Hirt, 2002;Ogburn, 1934). For example, Babad (1987) examined predictions of more than 1000 soccer fans and found that 93% predicted their favorite team to win an upcoming match.…”

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confidence: 99%