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Background The use of foresight studies is common in some policy fields, but not in public health. Interest in such studies is growing. This paper gives a general overview of the Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS) 2018, providing insight into what performing a broad scenario exercise in the field of public health entails and its societal impacts. Methods The aim of the PHFS-2018 was: (a) to show how public health and healthcare in the Netherlands will develop over the next 25 years if we pursue our current course and detect ‘new’ developments; (b) to give options for dealing with the major future societal challenges. Part a was addressed by means of a quantitative business-as-usual scenario exercise complemented with qualitative thematic studies, and part b by elaborating courses of action for three key challenges, based on stakeholder consultation. Typical aspects of the PHFS methods are a multidisciplinary, participatory and conceptual approach and using a broad definition of health. Results The PHFS-2018 is the basis for the upcoming National Health Policy Memorandum and the Trend Scenario is the baseline for the National Prevention Agreement. Unexpectedly, the findings about increasing mental pressure in young people received most attention. There still is room for expanding use of the study to its full potential. Conclusions Long-term thinking could be stimulated by using back casting techniques and stronger involvement of policy-makers in the elaboration of options for action. Lessons learned from developing intersectoral policy at the local level could be applied at the national level.
Background The use of foresight studies is common in some policy fields, but not in public health. Interest in such studies is growing. This paper gives a general overview of the Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS) 2018, providing insight into what performing a broad scenario exercise in the field of public health entails and its societal impacts. Methods The aim of the PHFS-2018 was: (a) to show how public health and healthcare in the Netherlands will develop over the next 25 years if we pursue our current course and detect ‘new’ developments; (b) to give options for dealing with the major future societal challenges. Part a was addressed by means of a quantitative business-as-usual scenario exercise complemented with qualitative thematic studies, and part b by elaborating courses of action for three key challenges, based on stakeholder consultation. Typical aspects of the PHFS methods are a multidisciplinary, participatory and conceptual approach and using a broad definition of health. Results The PHFS-2018 is the basis for the upcoming National Health Policy Memorandum and the Trend Scenario is the baseline for the National Prevention Agreement. Unexpectedly, the findings about increasing mental pressure in young people received most attention. There still is room for expanding use of the study to its full potential. Conclusions Long-term thinking could be stimulated by using back casting techniques and stronger involvement of policy-makers in the elaboration of options for action. Lessons learned from developing intersectoral policy at the local level could be applied at the national level.
Indicators are quantitative or qualitative measures used to gauge various aspects of society and assess change over time (such as monitoring the progress or effectiveness of a public policy). Ideally, indicators should be precisely defined and measured according to harmonized procedures that may not be feasible in practice, especially in domains such as health, where indicators are often derived from preexisting, heterogeneous datasets. Integrating such data has posed a persistent challenge, but semantic technologies offer advantages by enriching data in a relatively simple, linkable, and non-disruptive way. However, without harmonized frameworks, the difficulties associated with data integration are unlikely to be resolved. In this article, we propose a generic, domain-neutral indicator contextualization framework for structuring and linking distributed datasets with contextual metadata according to a standard model. The framework integrates the concepts of the International Organization for Standardization/International Electrotechnical Commission (ISO/IEC) 11179 metadata registry standard with the common core ontologies (CCO) mid-level ontology suite, and incorporates other semantic technologies to make it adaptable and interoperable within and across domains. Application of the framework to an example indicator illustrates the versatility and adaptability of the approach in a federated data architecture. The contextual information can be dereferenced using standard query tools to provide data users a comprehensive understanding and overview of the indicator. The framework is amenable to deep learning applications via the principles of semantic data models, linked open data, and knowledge organization systems. The ideas are presented to stimulate further reflection and consolidation of standard data contextualization frameworks.
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