Structural stability and evolution of urban systems

The employment cycles of neighboring cities

“…22 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 A █ indicates a quarter in which the city was in an employment contraction. The shaded areas are the periods during which national employment was in contraction (Owyang, Piger, and Wall, 201019901991199219931994199519961997200020022003200420062007 City effects are measured relative to the excluded city, Chicago-Naperville-Joliet. A * or † indicates statistical significance at the 5 percent and 10 percent levels, respectively.…”

“…8 The evolution of the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana MSA, for example, can be thought of as having followed something like the evolutionary process of Fujita and Mori (1997) and Fujita, Krugman, and Mori (1999) eventually becoming a more-unified system that could be categorized as a metro area.…”

“…Countervailing this notion, however, are models of urban systems, which allow the possibility that neighboring cities have divergent employment cycles. For example, in the evolutionary hierarchy models of Fujita and Mori (1997) and Fujita, Krugman, and Mori (1999), neighboring cities arise out of a single evolutionary process through which one agglomeration center becomes two, each serving a different set of functions within the metro-area economy. If cities with similar functions have similar cycles, and there is a consistent division of functions across metro areas, then cities in the same position on their metro areas hierarchy will have similar cycles.…”

Dynamic Urban Models: Agglomeration and Growth

“…There is a large literature studying the static version of the model, including AbdelRahman (1988), Abdel-Rahman and Fujita (1990), Krugman (1991Krugman ( , 1993, and Berliant and Kung (2002), to name but a few. Comparative statics exercises where exogenous variables, such as population, are presumed to grow at an exogenous rate tied to time can be found in Krugman (1995) andMori (1997). For instance, in a stripped down form, growth in Henderson and Ioannides (1981) is tied exclusively to an increase in the number of cities as a response to an exogenous increase in population.…”

Bifurcations in Regional Migration Dynamics

“…The literature often considers a two region system. Beginning with a uniform distribution of immobile agricultural workers or farmers, Fujita et al (1999) explain the emergence of the core-periphery urban pattern using the dynamics of a tomahawk bifurcation when transportation cost varies and other parameters are …xed (see also Fujita and Mori, 1997). When transportation cost is high, the symmetric equilibrium, where both regions have the same mobile manufacturing population, is the only equilibrium and it is stable.…”