Dynamic Urban Models: Agglomeration and Growth

Berliant, Marcus; Wang, Ping

doi:10.1016/s0573-8555(04)66017-2

Cited by 21 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Stability over time in the relationship between urban concentration and the population growth rate was tested in this study with the secondary aim to identify and characterize distinctive phases within the country's urban-rural cycle. Internal (political, institutional and cultural issues) and external (economic globalization and socio-demographic change) factors have demonstrated to influence local-scale population dynamics shaping metropolitan hierarchies at a broader spatial scale [41,92,93]. Results of this study may definitely inform a comprehensive strategy for sustainable development, providing key information for urban planning and rural development [31,32,94].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Our work hypothesizes a non-linear relationship between demographic density and population growth [23], in line with earlier evidence of density-dependent population dynamics ( Figure 1). Non-linearity in the relationship between the two variables reflects the distinctive action of density thresholds in population growth (or decline), implying complex effects and more volatile interactions over space between economic factors and the background social context [3,39,41]. More specifically, population growth rates under equilibrium conditions were assumed to increase with urban concentration (i.e., high population density) up to a specific density threshold, progressively decreasing for higher values of population density (e.g., reflecting over-crowded settlements).…”

Section: Density-dependent Population Growth and The Spatial Distribumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Particularly low density and continuous population decline are symptoms of depopulation [36][37][38]. A refined, comparative analysis of demographic dynamics over a sufficiently long time interval and a detailed enough spatial scale seems to be appropriate for identifying density thresholds [39][40][41] that more likely lead to positive (or negative) growth rates in both urban contexts (e.g., congestion effects) and rural contexts (e.g., depopulation effects).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population Dynamics and Agglomeration Factors: A Non-Linear Threshold Estimation of Density Effects

et al. 2020

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Although Southern Europe is relatively homogeneous in terms of settlement characteristics and urban dynamics, spatial heterogeneity in its population distribution is still high, and differences across regions outline specific demographic patterns that require in-depth investigation. In such contexts, density-dependent mechanisms of population growth are a key factor regulating socio-demographic dynamics at various spatial levels. Results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the distribution of the resident population in Greece contributes to identifying latent (density-dependent) processes of metropolitan growth over a sufficiently long time interval . Identification of density-dependent patterns of population growth contributes to the analysis of socioeconomic factors underlying demographic divides, possibly distinguishing between the effects of population concentration and dispersion. Population growth rates were non-linearly correlated with population density, highlighting a positive (or negative) impact of urban concentration on demographic growth when population is lower (or higher) than a fixed threshold (2800 and 1300 inhabitants/km 2 in 1961 and 2011, respectively). In a context of low population density (less than 20 inhabitants/km 2 ), the relationship between density and growth was again negative, contrasting with the positive and linear relationship observed in denser contexts. This result evidences a sort of 'depopulation' trap that leads to accelerated population decline under a defined density threshold. An improved understanding of density-dependent mechanisms of population growth and decline contributes to rethinking strategies of sustainable development and social policies more adapted to heterogeneous regional contexts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Density-dependent Population Growth and The Spatial Distribumentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Population Dynamics and Agglomeration Factors: A Non-Linear Threshold Estimation of Density Effects

et al. 2020

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“…However, the empirical results for the most recent time horizon (1981-2019) reflect more complex demographic and settlement processes over space. According with Berliant and Wang [117], "while basic questions such as 'does urbanization cause growth or does growth cause urbanization?' or 'does supporting urbanization imply neglecting rural areas?'…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

In-Between ‘Smart’ Urban Growth and ‘Sluggish’ Rural Development? Reframing Population Dynamics in Greece, 1940–2019

et al. 2020

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Multifaceted demographic dynamics have shaped population growth in Mediterranean Europe, reflecting a metropolitan cycle from urbanization to re-urbanization. To assess the distinctive impact of economic downturns on population dynamics, the present study illustrates the results of an exploratory analysis that assesses urban expansion and rural decline at various temporal scales in Greece, a peripheral country in southeastern Europe. Statistical analysis based on multivariate exploratory techniques outlined the persistent increase of regional populations, evidencing the distinctive role of agglomeration/scale with urbanization and early suburbanization phases (1940–1980) and accessibility/amenities with late suburbanization and re-urbanization phases (1981–2019). Recession accompanied (and, in some way, consolidated) the decline of agglomeration economies, leading to counter-urbanization in some cases. As an indirect result of counter-urbanization, the population increased more rapidly in low-density coastal areas with moderate accessibility and tourism specialization. Consistently, settlement expansion has altered the persistent gap in central and peripheral locations. A polarized urban hierarchy centered on the capital city, Athens, was replaced with a more diffused growth of medium-sized cities and attractive rural locations, depicting a new development path for lagging countries in the European Union and other socioeconomic contexts worldwide.

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“…The aim of this research, considering population growth rate as a density-dependent variable, is to assess the intrinsic linkage between population growth and demographic density. Assuming the complex spatial association between demographic density and population growth [26,35,36] as an intrinsic property of local communities, non-linear mechanisms of population regulation reflect feedback impacts on socioeconomic contexts at large [3,37,38]. For instance, population growth was demonstrated to intensify with urban concentration up to a specific density amount [39], declining at higher levels of population concentration (e.g., displaying the negative externalities of over-crowding).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population Trends and Urbanization: Simulating Density Effects Using a Local Regression Approach

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Recchioni

Turco

et al. 2020

IJGI

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Density-dependent population growth regulates long-term urban expansion and shapes distinctive socioeconomic trends. Despite a marked heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the resident population, Mediterranean European countries are considered more homogeneous than countries in other European regions as far as settlement structure and processes of metropolitan growth are concerned. However, rising socioeconomic inequalities among Southern European regions reflect latent demographic and territorial transformations that require further investigation. An integrated assessment of the spatio-temporal distribution of resident populations in more than 1,000 municipalities (1961–2011) was carried out in this study to characterize density-dependent processes of metropolitan growth in Greece. Using geographically weighted regressions, the results of our study identified distinctive local relationships between population density and growth rates over time. Our results demonstrate that demographic growth rates were non-linearly correlated with other variables, such as population density, with positive and negative impacts during the first (1961–1971) and the last (2001–2011) observation decade, respectively. These findings outline a progressive shift over time from density-dependent processes of population growth, reflecting a rapid development of large metropolitan regions (Athens, Thessaloniki) in the 1960s, to density-dependent processes more evident in medium-sized cities and accessible rural regions in the 2000s. Density-independent processes of population growth have been detected in the intermediate study period (1971–2001). This work finally discusses how a long-term analysis of demographic growth, testing for density-dependent mechanisms, may clarify the intrinsic role of population concentration and dispersion in different phases of the metropolitan cycle in Mediterranean Europe.

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Dynamic Urban Models: Agglomeration and Growth

Cited by 21 publications

References 65 publications

Population Dynamics and Agglomeration Factors: A Non-Linear Threshold Estimation of Density Effects

Population Dynamics and Agglomeration Factors: A Non-Linear Threshold Estimation of Density Effects

In-Between ‘Smart’ Urban Growth and ‘Sluggish’ Rural Development? Reframing Population Dynamics in Greece, 1940–2019

Population Trends and Urbanization: Simulating Density Effects Using a Local Regression Approach

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