Strong Ground-Motion Prediction from Stochastic-Dynamic Source Models

Guatteri, M.; Martin, Paul Marius; Beroza, Gregory C.; Boatwright, John

doi:10.1785/0120020006

Cited by 117 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Another end-member model assumes that the seismic radiation is controlled by the variations of rupture velocity and rise time. In reality, heterogeneity of slip might reflect geometric heterogeneity or heterogeneity of fracture energy so that heterogeneities of slip, rupture velocity and rise time are probably interrelated (Guatteri et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rupture Process of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Duzce Earthquake from Joint Analysis of SPOT, GPS, InSAR, Strong-Motion, and Teleseismic Data: A Supershear Rupture with Variable Rupture Velocity

Konca¹,

Leprince²,

Avouac³

et al. 2010

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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We analyze the rupture process of the 1999 M w 7.1 Duzce earthquake using seismological, remote sensing, and geodetic data. Ground deformation measured from the subpixel cross correlation of Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT) images reveals a 55 km long fault trace and smooth surface-slip distribution peaking at 3.5-4 m. The westernmost segment overlaps for over 10 km with ruptures from the M w 7.4 Izmit earthquake. The 15 km long easternmost segment, which cuts across mountainous topography, had not been reported previously. We determine a well-constrained source model using a four-segment fault geometry using constraints on surface fault slip and inverting Global Positioning System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data along with strong-motion records. Our results show that some variability of the rupture velocity and an eastward supershear velocity are required to fit the strong-motion data. The rise time, up to 6 sec, correlates with cumulative slip, suggesting a sliding velocity of about 1 m=sec. The source model predicts teleseismic waveforms well, although early by 2 sec. This time shift is probably due to the weak beginning of the earthquake that is not observable at teleseismic distances. Strong-motion records are relatively well predicted from a source model derived from the teleseismic data using the fault geometry derived from the satellite images. This study demonstrates the benefit of using accurate fault geometries to determine finite-fault source models.Online Material: Tables of best-fitting dip angles and rupture velocities, and figures showing mutual consistency of derived displacements fields, additional slip and rise-time models, and teleseismic waveform fit.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rupture Process of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Duzce Earthquake from Joint Analysis of SPOT, GPS, InSAR, Strong-Motion, and Teleseismic Data: A Supershear Rupture with Variable Rupture Velocity

Konca¹,

Leprince²,

Avouac³

et al. 2010

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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“…The latter is thought to be significant, particularly in proximity of the fault (e.g. Guatteri et al 2003). On the other hand, scattering is generally thought to play an important role at large distances (Spudich & Chiou 2008).…”

Section: Ground-motion Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Eventually, the scattering of elastic waves has become the subject of a series of studies applying deterministic and stochastic modelling (Frankel & Clayton 1986;Roth & Korn 1993;Saito et al 2002;Nielsen & Thybo 2003;Pitarka 2009), targeted towards a deeper understanding of the scattering process, and deciphering the characteristics and distribution of heterogeneities in the Earth crust and mantle. Recently, have demonstrated that scattering can sensibly increase ground-motion complexity already at few kilometres away from the source, where source effects were generally thought to dominate (Guatteri et al 2003;Aagaard & Heaton 2004;Ripperger et al 2008).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of topography and lateral velocity heterogeneities on near-source scattering and ground-motion variability

Imperatori

Martin

2015

Geophys. J. Int.

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“…The rupture process is then allowed to evolve dynamically as dictated by an assumed fault friction law. The development of dynamic source models is an active area of research in earthquake source physics (e.g., Guatteri et al, 2003;Harris et al, 2009;Lapusta and Liu 2009;Schmedes et al, 2010;Bizzarri, 2011;DeDontney et al, 2011). While dynamic source models may better characterize earthquake source physics, the theory is more complex and less mature when compared with kinematic source modeling (e.g., the state of stress in the earth and the fault friction law are not known; they are not as well-constrained as kinematic source parameters such as slip).…”

Section: Source Model Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid Estimation of Damage to Tall Buildings Using Near Real-Time Earthquake and Archived Structural Simulations

Krishnan¹,

Casarotti²,

Goltz³

et al. 2012

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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This article outlines a new approach to rapidly estimate the damage to tall buildings immediately following a large earthquake. The preevent groundwork involves the creation of a database of structural responses to a suite of idealized ground-motion waveforms. The postevent action involves (1) rapid generation of an earthquake source model, (2) near real-time simulation of the earthquake using a regional spectral-element model of the earth and computing synthetic seismograms at tall building sites, and (3) estimation of tall building response (and damage) by determining the best-fitting idealized waveforms to the synthetically generated ground motion at the site and directly extracting structural response metrics from the database. Here, ground-velocity waveforms are parameterized using sawtoothlike wave trains with a characteristic period (T), amplitude (peak ground velocity, PGV), and duration (number of cycles, N). The proof-of-concept is established using the case study of one tall building model. Nonlinear analyses are performed on the model subjected to the idealized wave trains, with T varying from 0.5 s to 6.0 s, PGV varying from 0:125 m=s, and N varying from 1 to 5. Databases of peak transient and residual interstory drift ratios (IDR), and permanent roof drift are created. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the rapid response approach by applying it to synthetic waveforms from a simulated 1857-like magnitude 7.9 San Andreas earthquake. The peak IDR, a key measure of structural performance, is predicted well enough for emergency response decision making.

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Strong Ground-Motion Prediction from Stochastic-Dynamic Source Models

Cited by 117 publications

References 48 publications

Rupture Process of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Duzce Earthquake from Joint Analysis of SPOT, GPS, InSAR, Strong-Motion, and Teleseismic Data: A Supershear Rupture with Variable Rupture Velocity

Rupture Process of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Duzce Earthquake from Joint Analysis of SPOT, GPS, InSAR, Strong-Motion, and Teleseismic Data: A Supershear Rupture with Variable Rupture Velocity

The role of topography and lateral velocity heterogeneities on near-source scattering and ground-motion variability

Rapid Estimation of Damage to Tall Buildings Using Near Real-Time Earthquake and Archived Structural Simulations

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