Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather

Kidston, Joseph; Scaife, Adam A.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Mitchell, Dann; Butchart, Neal; Baldwin, Mark P.; Gray, Lesley J.

doi:10.1038/ngeo2424

Cited by 581 publications

(558 citation statements)

References 96 publications

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“…For example, Baldwin and Dunkerton (2001) revealed that the signals of the polar vortex propagate downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere over one to two months. The mechanisms of the downward influence are still contentious, though some theories have been proposed: wave-mean flow interaction (Kuroda and Kodera 1999), reflections of planetary waves due to the change in stratospheric circulation (Perlwitz and Harnik 2003;Perlwitz and Harnik 2004;Kodera et al 2008), influence of the stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) anomaly (Ambaum and Hoskins 2002), and so on (please refer to Kidston et al 2015 for a holistic review). Among these, Ambaum and Hoskins (2002; hereafter AH02) suggested a mechanism in which the modulation of the stratospheric circulation affects the troposphere via geostrophic adjustment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Zonal Mean Fields Associated with Stratospheric Influence in JMA/MRI-CPS2

Saito¹,

Maeda

Nakaegawa³

et al. 2017

SOLA

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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most dominant hemispheric variability affecting the winter climate. It is, however, difficult to predict the NAO on a seasonal time scale. Thus, a better understanding of the NAO is important for improving the accuracy of seasonal forecasts. We investigated the seasonal predictability of the NAO and the zonal mean fields of the stratosphere using hindcasts based on the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency. We found that both the predictive skill and the potential predictability of the NAO index increased from late winter to early spring and that this seasonality relates to high predictability of the zonal mean geopotential height in the stratosphere and near the surface. Analysis of the convergence/divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux indicates that the high predictability in the stratosphere in late winter results from the large signal of upward-propagating Rossby waves. The downward influence of the predictable signal from the stratosphere to the troposphere was also quantitatively estimated using the approach proposed by Ambaum and Hoskins (2002). The signal of the surface pressure estimated from that of stratospheric potential vorticity is roughly consistent with the actual signal, substantiating the stratospheric contribution to the near-surface seasonal predictability.(Citation: Saito, N., S. Maeda, T. Nakaegawa, Y. Takaya, Y. Imada, and C. Matsukawa, 2017: Seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and zonal mean fields associated with stratospheric influence in JMA/MRI-CPS2. SOLA, 13, 209−213,

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Zonal Mean Fields Associated with Stratospheric Influence in JMA/MRI-CPS2

Saito¹,

Maeda

Nakaegawa³

et al. 2017

SOLA

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“…Stratosphere-troposphere coupling exerts a potential influence in winter on the PFJ through a range of factors (Kidston et al 2015;Hall et al 2015). However, in the summer hemisphere the stratospheric polar vortex breaks down, and easterly flow prevails, which prevents propagation of Rossby waves and so this coupling does not occur and therefore predictors of variability such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the impact of tropical volcanic eruptions, to name but two, are unable to exert a summer-time influence via the stratospheric pathway.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Jones

Hanna

et al. 2016

Clim Dyn

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“…their own horizontal group velocity is sometimes significant (e.g., Sato et al, 2009Sato et al, , 2012. BDC affects the global climate by modifying the tropopause structure, such as static stability and westerly jet latitudes (e.g., Kidston et al, 2015;Kohma and Sato, 2014;Li and Thompson, 2013). The significant potential contribution of GWs shown by the present study indicates the necessity of further constraint to the GW parameterization by high-resolution observations.…”

Section: Summary and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 85%

The Climatology of Brewer-Dobson Circulation and the Contribution of Gravity Waves

Sato¹,

Hirano²

2018

Preprint

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Abstract. The climatology of residual mean circulation, which is a main component of Brewer-Dobson circulation, and the potential contribution of gravity waves (GWs) are examined for the annual mean state and for each season based on the transformed-Eulerian mean zonal momentum equation using modern four reanalysis data, which allows us to examine the whole stratosphere. First, the potential contribution of Rossby waves (RWs) to residual mean circulation is estimated from Eliassen-Palm flux divergence. The rest of residual-mean circulation, from which the potential RW contribution and zonal 10 mean zonal wind tendency are subtracted, is regarded as the potential GW contribution. These potential wave contributions are exact contributions for the annual mean state and give good approximates for solstitial seasons. The GWs contribute to drive not only the summer hemispheric part of the winter deep branch and low-latitude part of shallow branches, as indicated by previous studies, but also cause a higher-latitude extension of the deep circulation in all seasons except for summer. This GW contribution is essential to determine the location of the turn-around latitude. The autumn circulation is stronger and wider 15 than that of spring in the equinoctial seasons, regardless of almost symmetric RW and GW contributions around the equator. This asymmetry is attributable to the existence of the spring-to-autumn pole circulation corresponding to the angular momentum transport associated with seasonal variation due to the radiative process. The potential GW contribution is larger in September-to-November than in March-to-May in both hemispheres. The upward mass flux is maximized in the boreal winter in the lower stratosphere, while it exhibits semi-annual variation in the upper stratosphere. The GW contribution to the 20 annual mean upward mass flux is in a range of 10-30 %, depending on the reanalysis data. The boreal winter maximum in the lower stratosphere is attributable to stronger RW activity in both hemispheres than in the austral winter.

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Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather

Cited by 581 publications

References 96 publications

Seasonal Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Zonal Mean Fields Associated with Stratospheric Influence in JMA/MRI-CPS2

Seasonal Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Zonal Mean Fields Associated with Stratospheric Influence in JMA/MRI-CPS2

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

The Climatology of Brewer-Dobson Circulation and the Contribution of Gravity Waves

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