“…Despite these steps, 1994 public debt reached 30% of GDP and annual inflation exceeded 5,000%, leading to the final Real plan (Oreiro and Paula, 2007; Schnepf et al, 2001). Its market‐oriented reforms included a reduced state role in price, production, and trade and further contributed to agricultural modernization—particularly in pig, poultry, and dairy sectors (Helfand and Rezende, 2004).…”
Brazil's economic strategy has shifted hesitatingly during the last several decades from one of producer protection to trade competitiveness. Exploiting the variations these shifts have afforded, we use a sequence of decennial agricultural censuses to examine Brazilian policy implications for agricultural competitiveness and efficiency. Total factor productivity is decomposed into best-technology and efficiency elements, each subject to policy influence. We find technology growth, at 4.5% per annum, to have been extraordinarily high, particularly in the south. But because productivity among average producers has fallen rapidly behind that on the technical frontier, total productivity growth has been a much more modest 2.6% per year. Public agricultural research programs most benefit the country's technological leaders, widening the gap between frontier and average producer. Credit, education, and road construction policies instead narrow that gap. Credit and road programs especially enhance efficiency in the south, where efficiency losses have been greatest. JEL classification: O2, O3
“…Despite these steps, 1994 public debt reached 30% of GDP and annual inflation exceeded 5,000%, leading to the final Real plan (Oreiro and Paula, 2007; Schnepf et al, 2001). Its market‐oriented reforms included a reduced state role in price, production, and trade and further contributed to agricultural modernization—particularly in pig, poultry, and dairy sectors (Helfand and Rezende, 2004).…”
Brazil's economic strategy has shifted hesitatingly during the last several decades from one of producer protection to trade competitiveness. Exploiting the variations these shifts have afforded, we use a sequence of decennial agricultural censuses to examine Brazilian policy implications for agricultural competitiveness and efficiency. Total factor productivity is decomposed into best-technology and efficiency elements, each subject to policy influence. We find technology growth, at 4.5% per annum, to have been extraordinarily high, particularly in the south. But because productivity among average producers has fallen rapidly behind that on the technical frontier, total productivity growth has been a much more modest 2.6% per year. Public agricultural research programs most benefit the country's technological leaders, widening the gap between frontier and average producer. Credit, education, and road construction policies instead narrow that gap. Credit and road programs especially enhance efficiency in the south, where efficiency losses have been greatest. JEL classification: O2, O3
“…As críticas a esse padrão de crescimento (puxado pelo consumo) partiram não somente da ortodoxia, que tradicionalmente o associam a "populismo econômico", mas também de outros economistas que apontaram as limitações desse "modelo" de crescimento, particularmente em razão da inconsistência de crescer com base na demanda doméstica, combinado com um processo de forte apreciação cambial, ocorrido durante a vigência do Plano Real (1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998) e posteriormente no período pós-crise de confi ança, em 2002-2003, o que fez com que os estímulos ao crescimento vazassem para o exterior, levando a indústria nacional a perder posição na composição setorial do PIB.Para os economistas identifi cados pelo que foi denominado de novo-desenvolvimentismo (Bresser-Pereira, 2006, 2010Bresser-Pereira;Gala, 2010;Oreiro;Paula, 2007;Oreiro, 2012), o processo de "desindustrialização" tem como principal variável explicativa a valorização cambial no período pós-Plano Real. Nesta perspectiva, o crescimento liderado pela demanda doméstica somente foi possível em um contexto no qual: (a) os salários vinham de um histórico de crescimento abaixo da produtividade, de modo que havia certa "folga" para subir; e (b) a conjuntura externa era atipicamente favo- Consumo final Exportações Formação bruta e capital rável, seja pelos ingressos autônomos na conta capital, seja pelos superávits nas transações correntes, em face da liderança da demanda chinesa por commodities que impactou nos preços e nas quantidades exportadas pelo Brasil.…”
Section: Estratégias De Desenvolvimento No Brasilunclassified
Resumo: Tendo como ponto de partida a controvérsia entre as proposições novo-desenvolvimentista e social-desenvolvimentista, o artigo objetiva mostrar que ambas abordagens podem ser conciliáveis, bem como propõe uma estratégia keynesiano-institucionalista para a economia brasileira que seja capaz de assegurar crescimento econômico sustentável, estabilidade monetária, equilíbrios fiscal e externo e inclusão social.
“…Empirical data accumulated in recent years suggests that maintaining the real exchange rate at a competitive and stable level can directly stimulate capital accumulation, mainly in developing countries (Oreiro and de Paula, 2007;Gala, 2008;Razmi, Rapetti and Skott, 2009;Missio, 2012;Rapetti, Skott and Razmi, 2012;Oreiro and Araújo, 2013;Oreiro, Missio and Jayme, 2015). To study the relationship between economic growth, income distribution and the real exchange rate, Missio (2012) and Oreiro and Araújo (2013) developed a non-linear macrodynamic model for an open economy in which investment in fixed capital is assumed to be a function of the profit share of income and the level of capacity utilization, as in Bhaduri and Marglin (1990), but also as a quadratic function of the real exchange rate.…”
The theoretical model of Bhaduri and Marglin (1990) is one of the most discussed works regarding capital accumulation and functional income distribution. However, their analysis does not include the effects of an economy with government. The aim here is to identify the relationships between capital accumulation, the real exchange rate and the debt-to-GDP ratio, using a modified version of that model. The results of the theoretical model showed that an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio contributes to a regime of conflict between capitalists and workers. The empirical results for a group of countries in Latin America are consistent with this. Undervaluation of the real exchange rate has a positive influence on capital accumulation. A higher debt-to-GDP ratio has a negative effect.
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