Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: a sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan; Brown, Marilyn A.

doi:10.1016/s0301-4215(01)00075-1

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…negative cost) potentials themselves represent a realm of debates ongoing for decades between different schools of thought (e.g. see Carlsmith et al 1990, Sutherland 1991, Koomey et al 1998, Gumerman et al 2001. Those accepting negative cost potentials argue, among others, that certain barriers prevent those investments from taking place on a purely market basis, but policy interventions can remove these barriers and unlock these profitable potentials.…”

Section: Limitations Of the Supply Curve Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigation Potential and Costs

Fischedick¹,

Schaeffer²,

Adedoyin³

et al. 2011

Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

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Length Chapter 10 has been allocated a total of 68 pages in the SRREN. The actual chapter length (excluding references & cover page) is 90 pages: a total of 22 pages over target. The Executive Summary exceeds its allocation by 2 pages as it shall not exceed 1.5 pages. Expert reviewers are kindly asked to indicate where the Chapter and Executive Summary could be shortened in terms of text and/or figures and tables. Structure In light of the very successful IPCC WG III Expert Meeting 'Modelling Renewable Energies; Coherence Between Model Assumptions and Latest Technological Knowledge', new data and new literature the structure of Chapter 10 has been improved to follow a more logical order. This new structure is subject to IPCC plenary approval. Please note that all content from the chapter outline has been retained. Expert Reviewers are kindly invited to comment on these amendments. The content of the original 10.2 (Methodological Issues) is now integrated in each relevant subsection, where appropriate. Similarly, the content of the original 10.7 (Gaps in knowledge and uncertainties) now appears at the end of the relevant subsections , where appropriate. The original 10.3 (Assessment and synthesis of scenarios for different renewable energy strategies (top-down and bottom-up)) is shifted to section 10.2 and deals as before with an overview of medium to longterm global, aggregated models. The original section 10.4 (cost curves for mitigation with renewable energy) is split apart into the new sections 10.3 and 10.4. The new 10.3 (Assessment of representative mitigation scenarios for different renewable energy strategies) investigates those models further that have greater technological detail. The new 10.4 (regional cost curves for mitigation with renewable energy) extends on the old 10.4 and goes into further technical detail dealing with regional resource cost curves and mitigation cot curves. References First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) Do Not Cite or Quote 2 of 106 Chapter 10 SRREN_Draft1_Ch10 22-Dec-09 References highlighted in yellow are either missing or unclear. Tables & Figures The Numbering of tables & figures is not continuous and its structure differs between the numbers attached to the table & figure and the one in the text. That is, numbering of tables & figures starts new with every subsection 10.x and is structured 10.x.1, 10.x.2, … Numbering in the text starts with 1 in every subsection 10.x. Therefore, each reference can be clearly identified by the last digit. For example, in section 10.2, Figure 10.2.5 is referred to as Figure 5 in the text.

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Section: Limitations Of the Supply Curve Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigation Potential and Costs

Fischedick¹,

Schaeffer²,

Adedoyin³

et al. 2011

Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Leneman et al (1998) conducted SA to identify the effect of uncertainties on ammonia emissions with respect to emission factors and the implementation of emission abatement techniques in the Netherlands. Gumerman et al (2001) presented a range of policy scenarios composed of different subsets of policy interventions and different energy prices in the United States in order to provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Arogo et al (2010) carried out SA to determine the input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the outcomes of an ammonia emission modeling system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Lumbreras

Andrés

Pérez

et al. 2014

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the "with measures" scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance.Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

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“…A number of analysts modeled the clean energy technology policies , Gumerman et al, 2001Hadley and Short, 2001) proposed in Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (Interlaboratory Working Group, 2001), a Department of Energy document that lists and discusses the highest priority energy technologies. These analyses clustered policy instruments into a moderate policy scenario and an advanced policy scenario, respectively, and then sought to measure the economic and environmental effects of these scenarios using NEMS software.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector: Are state energy policy portfolios the solution?

Carley

2011

Energy Economics

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State governments have taken the lead on U.S. energy and climate policy. It is not yet clear, however, whether state energy policy portfolios can generate results in a similar magnitude or manner to their presumed carbon mitigation potential. This article seeks to address this lack of policy evidence and contribute empirical insights on the carbon mitigation effects of state energy portfolios within the U.S. electricity sector. Using a dynamic, long-term electricity dispatch model with U.S. power plant, utility, and transmission and distribution data between 2010 and 2030, this analysis builds a series of state-level policy portfolio scenarios and performs a comparative scenario analysis. Results reveal that state policy portfolios have modest to minimal carbon mitigation effects in the long run if surrounding states do not adopt similar portfolios as well. The difference in decarbonization potential between isolated state policies and larger, more coordinated policy efforts is due in large part to carbon leakage, which is the export of carbon intensive fossil fuel-based electricity across state lines. Results also confirm that a carbon price of $50/metric ton CO 2 e can generate substantial carbon savings. Although both policy options-an energy policy portfolio or a carbon price-are effective at reducing carbon emissions in the present analysis, neither is as effective alone as when the two strategies are combined.Keywords: Electricity markets, Energy policy, Carbon dioxide, Climate policy _______________________________________________________________ * scarley@indiana.edu, 812-856-0920, School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, 1315 East Tenth Street, Bloomington, Indiana, 47405.Carley working paper January 2011 IntroductionMotivated by Pacala and Socolow's -stabilization wedge‖ concept (2004), as well as similar ideas presented by the Electric Power Research Institute-the -prism‖ (2007)-and others, an increasing number of states have adopted energy policy portfolios (or packages) since the early 2000s in effort to reduce carbon emissions. The rationale for portfolios, as opposed to single policies, is appropriately captured in a common energy policy saying: -there is no silver bullet.‖ Indeed, by the very nature of their construction, portfolio strategies allow states to assemble clusters of instruments, which may not produce significant effects individually but, when combined, have the potential to provide compounding carbon mitigation effects (Gunningham and Gabrosky, 1998). Furthermore, state portfolios tend to include a combination of policies from a variety of sectors, including electricity supply, transportation, agriculture, forestry, land-use, and residential, commercial, and industrial. A multi-sector strategy allows states to spread the costs and responsibility of carbon mitigation among various industries. Portfolio strategies can also be more effective than single instruments because they have the potential to target multiple externalities at once and achieve carbon ...

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Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: a sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

Cited by 10 publications

References 19 publications

Mitigation Potential and Costs

Mitigation Potential and Costs

A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector: Are state energy policy portfolios the solution?

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